FXUS62 KMHX 030846 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 446 AM EDT Sat May 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain anchored off the SE coast through late week. A cold front will move through the region late this weekend and early next week bringing more unsettled conditions. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 3 AM Saturday... KEY MESSAGES - Steady winds and mild tonight - Rain-free, breezy, and very warm Saturday All thunderstorm activity over eastern NC has ceased tonight. mild conditions this morning, along with debris cirri from earlier convection. Lows this morning will settle in the mid to upper 60s. A notable mid-level dryslot over the area should keep a cap on convective development during the day Saturday. Additionally, with the low-level flow becoming southerly, the seabreeze should move inland fairly quickly with limited convergence along it. Winds withing the southerly flow will be gusty at times thanks to a tightening pressure gradient east of deepening low pressure lifting out of the TN Valley and ample mixing. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Saturday... KEY MESSAGES - Increasing risk of showers and thunderstorms late Saturday night - Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms possible with gusty winds and heavy rain That area of low pressure will begin to occlude Saturday night as a potent cutoff low develops over the Ohio Valley. The occlusion of the SFC low should lead to a slowing of an eastward-advancing cold front that is forecast to move through the region Saturday night into Sunday. Ahead of this front, a moderately strong LLJ is forecast to develop, which should lead to increased moisture transport north through the eastern Carolinas Saturday night. It's expected that the strengthening moisture advection will offset the nocturnal boundary layer stabilization, leading to gradually increasing elevated instability through the night. This will occur in tandem with a broad area of diffluent flow aloft and increasing large-scale forcing for ascent. The end result should be a increased risk of showers and thunderstorms for much of the area, especially after midnight. Deep layer shear, and low- level helicity, is forecast to increase to 30-40kt in tandem with the slowly-building instability, and this may support a very conditional risk of a few stronger thunderstorms. However, it's unclear how much instability can build through the night, and guidance differs quite a bit. What appears to be more likely is areas of very heavy rain thanks to modest instability, strong lift, and PWATs increasing to 1.50". While a few isolated showers are possible ahead of the cold front, highest precipitation coverage will be along the front where the LLJ and forcing overlap. A messy linear storm mode seems like the most likely outcome, with a few stronger storms embedded within that line. Cold front slows down as it approaches the coast, with severe parameters less impressive. This keeps the best chance of strong to severe thunderstorms along and west of hwy 17 through the overnight hours. Strong wind gusts and heavy downpours are the primary concerns, although with antecedent dry conditions and faster storm motion flash flooding threat remains low. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 AM Saturday... Key Messages: - An upper low and surface cold front impacts the area this weekend and brings a prolonged period of unsettled weather to ENC into the middle of next week. Sunday - Tuesday: An upper level cut off low and accompanying surface low will remain quasi-stationary over the Ohio River Valley through Tuesday with its attendant cold front approaching ENC Sunday before eventually stalling near the East Coast into Tuesday. Deep moisture transport ahead of the upper low will bring widespread showers across ENC Sunday with PW values peaking around 1.3-1.5". Deeper moisture slides just offshore Sunday night through Tuesday with mid level drying ensuing across the coastal plain but sufficient instability and low level moisture persists with subtle mid level shortwaves pivoting through the upper low to continue to bring scattered showers across the region through Tuesday with highest chances along the coast. Rainfall amounts vary among guidance but general consensus is around a half to one inch across the coastal plain and potentially one to two inches along the coast through the period. Could see an isolated strong to marginally severe storm Sunday afternoon across western sections if deeper moisture pushes to the east early enough to allow sufficeint destabilization. Damaging wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats. High temps will be near climo on Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 70s, when will see gradual warming early to mid week with highs in the mid 80s expected Tuesday. Wednesday - Friday: An northern stream shortwave digging into the Great Lakes will aid in ejecting the upper low to the northeast Tuesday night and Wednesday but a southern stream shortwave and deepening northern stream trough will potentially bring periods of unsettled weather to the region as we move to the latter half of the work week. Guidance is not in best agreement with the evolution and timing of the late week system leading below average confidence for the late week system. Temps look to be near seasonal norms. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 06z Sunday/... As of 3 AM Saturday... KEY MESSAGES - VFR with breezy southerly winds through the day - Flight conditions worsen overnight Sat night Dry remainder of the night accompanied by steady south to southwest winds around 5-10 kt. All of daytime hours Sat will be dry as dry air continues to inhibit convection but winds will be breezy once again, gusting up to 25 kt at times and up to 25-30kt OBX. More widespread convection is likely after 03z Sun bringing thunderstorms, heavy rain, and gustier winds. Ceilings and visibilities will likely also drop to sub-VFR with the convection. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 415 AM Saturday...Periods sub-VFR conditions likely Sunday in showers and thunderstorms as and upper low and attendant cold front approach the region. Deeper moisture slides offshore Sunday night into Monday but scattered showers will linger into Tuesday bringing the threat of occasional sub-VFR conditions with best chances along the coast. The upper low lifts out late Tuesday and Wednesday bringing pred VFR conditions but could see late night/early morning fog bringing sub-VFR conditions. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Saturday night/... As of 3 AM Saturday... KEY MESSAGES - Increased risk of elevated winds and seas late Saturday through Saturday night - Increased risk of thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday morning Winds currently out of the south 10-20kt early this morning. Winds then steadily build this afternoon into tonight as a stronger gradient develops east of low pressure deepening to the west of ENC. The gradient is expected to be a bit stronger on Saturday than it has been the past couple of days. Additionally, recent guidance has continued trending stronger with the developing southerly flow during this time. In light of all of this, we have continued a Small Craft Advisory for the central and southern coastal waters where the risk of 25kt+ winds is the greatest and has increased since the last update. We have also added the Pamlico sound to the suite of Small Craft Advisories for tonight. Seas are expected to hold in the 2-4 foot range through Saturday morning, then build to 4-7 ft Saturday into Saturday night as winds build. Increasing moisture, lift, and instability is expected to lead to an increased risk of thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday morning as a cold front moves west to east. Coastal waters off of OBX may not see thunderstorms until Sunday morning. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 430 AM Saturday...A cold front will be stalled across the piedmont/coastal plain Sunday into Tuesday, then will push through the waters late Tuesday/Tuesday night. Expect southerly winds around 10-20 kt ahead of the front, then briefly becoming westerly around 10 kt or less behind the front before backing to light south to southwesterly late Wednesday. Seas around 4-6 ft continue through Sunday, highest across the outer central and southern waters, then subsides to 3-5 ft Monday and around 2-4 ft Tuesday and Wednesday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RJ SHORT TERM...RJ LONG TERM...SK AVIATION...RJ/SK MARINE...RJ/SK