FXUS62 KMLB 022324 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 724 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 720 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025 - Sensitive fire conditions continuing this weekend as lightning chances increase. - Increasing rain and lightning storm chances this weekend and into early next week, especially Sunday/Monday. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 346 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025 Rest of Today-Tonight...Surface high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will continue to build over the Florida peninsula through tonight. Increasing moisture across the area will continue to support scattered showers and storms across the Atlantic waters this afternoon, with some of this activity making it onshore and pushing inland. Isolated showers will produce a low (20 percent) chance of rain from roughly New Smyrna Beach to Poinciana eastward. Have maintained a low to medium (20-30 percent) chance of rain over the Atlantic waters through early evening. Hi-res guidance continues to indicate a low (20 percent) chance of lightning storms through the afternoon along the Treasure Coast and the adjacent waters. East- southeast winds will prevail today with speeds increasing in the afternoon/early evening as the east coast sea breeze forms and pushes inland. Gusts up to 20 mph will be possible at times. Temperatures will be seasonable to slightly above normal today, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s across the interior, and low to mid 80s along the coast. Tonight, expect mostly dry conditions across much of east central Florida. However, there is a low (20 percent) chance of rain along the coast, with 30-40 percent chance of rain across the Atlantic waters. Lightning storms are not forecast at this time. Temperatures will be seasonable with lows in the low to mid 60s. Saturday-Sunday...(Modified Previous Discussion) A cold front across LA/MS/KY on Saturday will slowly shift southeast towards the Florida peninsula, reaching the Florida panhandle and far northern Florida on Sunday. Increasing moisture ahead of the front will result in rain chances across much of east central Florida. Which will be a welcome site given drought conditions are affecting all of east central Florida. Modest 500mb height falls, combined with a more active pair of sea breezes and better dynamic support aloft, will set the stage for increasing rain and lightning storm chances (especially by Sunday). Weaker forcing on Saturday keeps rain chances lower, around 30 to 40 percent in the afternoon. Afternoon highs will reach the mid 80s to low 90s, with the east coast breeze providing a slight cool down into the low 80s at the barrier islands. Any afternoon showers or isolated storms that do develop will be capable of brief heavy downpours and gusty winds. By Sunday, mid level temperatures cool to around -13 C/-14 C as a shortwave moves over south-central Florida. A stronger west coast sea breeze is forecast to approach a pinned east coast sea breeze Sunday afternoon, sparking a greater potential for showers and storms. There is a high (70-80 percent)chance of rain and a medium (~40 percent) chance of lightning storms in the afternoon. Higher MUCAPE values (1500+ J/kg) and backed surface flow is modeled closer to the Atlantic coast, along with steep low-level lapse rates. Surface-based storms that can establish persistent updrafts will have the potential of producing strong gusty winds, frequent lightning strikes, and heavy downpours. Cooler 500mb temps may also support some ice growth, though hail potential appears lower at this time. Rain totals of 0.25"-0.50" with locally higher amounts of 1-2" are forecast, especially closer to the I-95 corridor. Activity will drift offshore Sunday evening with conditions drying out Sunday night into early Monday. Monday-Thursday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Monday brings another chance for showers and lightning storms as the west coast breeze remains active and the aforementioned cold front meanders near or just north of the area. An afternoon sea breeze collision is forecast once again, leading to convective development. Similar to Sunday, heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and gusty winds may accompany the strongest storms. Comparatively drier air arrives Tuesday and Wednesday, perhaps lasting through Thursday over a better portion of the area. Model solutions remain variable from Tuesday onward, so confidence is low in any isolated rain chance through mid week. Temperatures will remain similar, near to slightly warmer than normal in the extended period. && .MARINE... Issued at 346 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025 Today-Tuesday... Generally favorable boating conditions will remain over the local Atlantic into early next week. Rain and storm chances are forecast gradually increase through the weekend. SOutheast winds today and Saturday will freshen in the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms and pushes inland. Winds will veer south to southwest on Sunday ahead of a weakening cold front, which will stall near or just north of the waters into early next week. Seas 2- 4 ft, locally higher in the vicinity of heavy downpours and gusty lightning storms. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 720 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025 ESE gusty winds will gradually diminish into this evening to around 5 kts or less across the interior/Volusia coast and 5-10 kts along the Space/Treasure coasts. Wind direction will veer SE/S thru the night. Any spotty shower activity will diminish over the interior this evening, but there may be a small threat for onshore-moving convection along the coast. Light southerly (Sat) morning winds will "back" SERLY in the afternoon along the coast as the sea breeze develops and moves inland. Speeds generally 8-12 kts, but will increase to 15-20 kts along the coast in the afternoon with some higher gusts behind the sea breeze. Afternoon convection chances increase 30-40pct Sat afternoon invof of the sea breeze and as moisture increases. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 355 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025 Dry weather conditions and fuels over much of the area, combined with an easterly breeze, will present sensitive fire weather conditions today. Despite increasing moisture and rain chances this weekend, lightning storms will bring an increased risk of additional fire starts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 66 85 68 86 / 10 30 30 70 MCO 67 88 69 88 / 0 40 30 70 MLB 68 84 69 86 / 20 40 40 70 VRB 67 84 68 87 / 20 30 40 70 LEE 68 88 69 86 / 0 40 20 70 SFB 66 89 68 88 / 0 40 20 70 ORL 68 88 70 88 / 0 40 30 70 FPR 66 84 68 87 / 20 30 40 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Watson AVIATION...Sedlock