FXUS62 KTAE 171805 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 200 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Through Sunday) Issued at 136 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025 Another unseasonably hot day is expected on Sunday with high temperatures in the 90s for most of the area away from the immediate coast. While still hot, temps should be a couple of degrees cooler than previous days as the ridging overhead weakens just a bit due to a shortwave moving across the southeast US. This shortwave along with an existing outflow boundary draped across the northern portions of the area could lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing Sunday afternoon with gusty winds the primary threat. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 136 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025 A continued hot period of weather through Tuesday, with a cold front approaching on Wednesday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog is likely each morning through Wednesday. Lower afternoon dew points due to mixing will limit heat indices/apparent temps from Monday through Tuesday afternoons, despite highs in the mid-90s away from the coast. Some storms on Wednesday could be strong to severe, so stay tuned as the timing and threats become more clear. A high risk of rip currents also develops by midweek. After the passage of the cold front, cooler and drier weather returns Thursday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 136 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025 A few showers and storms will be possible near the northern sites this afternoon, but confidence is too low to include in the taf for now. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the evening before another blanket of MVFR to IFR ceilings and patchy fog settle in over the taf sites in the early morning hours. Conditions should improve to VFR once again a few hours after sunrise. && .MARINE... Issued at 136 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025 High pressure centered just southeast of the waters will continue a prolonged period of southwest flow, which will tend to be maximized during the daytime hours near the coast due to the seabreeze. Winds will increase out of the southwest ahead of a cold front Wednesday and remain elevated in the wake of the frontal passage on Thursday. There is a low probability of winds meeting Small Craft Advisory levels during this time frame, when seas will peak in the 3 to 5 foot range just offshore. A chance of showers and thunderstorms with the passage of the cold front on Wednesday and Wednesday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 136 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025 Southwesterly to westerly transport winds around 15 mph and mixing heights increasing to 5,000-6,000 feet each afternoon will result in high dispersions across inland areas with good dispersions near the coast. Isolated showers and storms will be possible across the AL and GA zones Sunday afternoon, mainly north of a Dothan to Fitzgerald line. Gusty erratic winds and dangerous lightning will be the primary threats with stronger storms. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 136 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025 No riverine or flash flooding concerns over the next several days, given light rainfall amounts across the region as well as upstream. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 71 95 70 95 / 0 10 0 0 Panama City 73 85 73 86 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 71 92 69 93 / 10 20 0 0 Albany 72 94 71 95 / 10 30 0 0 Valdosta 71 96 70 97 / 0 20 0 0 Cross City 68 91 68 92 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 72 84 72 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GMZ735. && $$ NEAR TERM...Merrifield SHORT TERM...LF LONG TERM....LF AVIATION...Merrifield MARINE...LF FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield HYDROLOGY...LF