FXUS62 KTBW 041850
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
250 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

The upper level low over the northeast gulf this afternoon will 
begin to drift northeast away from the region tonight and 
Thursday. The deep moisture across the area at this time will 
begin to lift north and east of the region by Friday as low level 
ridging builds in from the east with the axis setting up across 
the southern part of the forecast area. This will keep a southwest
to west flow across much of the area (Regime 4/5), except
southwest Florida where southerly flow each day will shift to
southwest to west with the sea breeze each afternoon. This overall 
pattern will hold through the weekend and with still plenty of 
moisture we'll see scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
each day with the highest chances over the interior and eastern 
half of the Florida peninsula. During the first half of next week,
the next upper level trough will be moving across the eastern 
U.S. with the low level ridge axis remaining across the southern 
parts of the area. Little overall change in the pattern is 
expected with the scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and 
evening showers and thunderstorms persisting. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to move across the
TAF sites into this evening causing MVFR/local IFR conditions.
Convection will wind down later this evening, but a shower will
still be possible around the Tampa Bay TAF sites overnight. More
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected Thursday.
Southerly winds at around 10 knots will diminish and shift to
southeast later this evening and overnight, then increase to
around 10 knots and shift back to south by midday Thursday.
Exception will be in the vicinity of convection where gusty
erratic winds could occur.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Unsettled weather continues across the eastern gulf waters as an 
upper-level low over the waters drifts northeast away from the 
region Thursday. Winds will remain 15 knots or less and seas 
3 feet or less through the upcoming weekend. Showers and 
thunderstorms will continue to remain possible through the work 
week with quieter more typical summerlike weather returning this 
weekend. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Warm and humid conditions with scattered to numerous showers and 
thunderstorms will continue over the next few days with no fire
weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  90  79  91 /  50  50  20  40 
FMY  74  91  76  93 /  30  40  20  50 
GIF  74  91  75  92 /  40  60  30  70 
SRQ  75  89  76  90 /  50  40  20  30 
BKV  69  91  71  92 /  50  60  20  40 
SPG  77  88  79  88 /  50  40  20  40 

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 5 
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: 
    https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

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