FXUS63 KABR 232016
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
316 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A 20-50% chance for showers and some weak thunderstorms will 
  persist into the late evening hours, especially along and west
  of the James Valley, before diminishing overnight. A repeat of
  the same activity in mainly the same areas is expected Saturday
  through Memorial Day with no severe weather expected.

- High temperatures will stay below normal(50s and 60s) through 
  early next week. Widespread 70s are not expected again until the
  end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... 
Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Areas of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms with some 
locally steady rains continue to move through mainly central 
sections of SD this afternoon. This activity has mainly clung onto 
zones west of the James Valley. There's a fair amount of dry air in 
the low levels to overcome across our eastern zones, but still can't 
rule out an isolated shower or two in the James Valley the remainder 
of this afternoon. Where it has rained most of the day so far, some 
locales have picked up a quarter to a third of an inch so far with a 
bit more to come.

Sfc high pressure remains situated north to south across across the 
eastern Dakotas and MN this afternoon while a broad area of low 
pressure is along the Front Range of the Rockies. Upper flow remains 
generally quasi-zonal across our region, with one disturbance 
working southeast across the southern half of SD into NE. This 
system will shift southeast out of our region tonight leading to a 
slow decline in shower activity by late evening and through the 
overnight. We anticipate the same set up again tomorrow across the 
region. Another mid-lvl piece of energy will shift west to southeast 
across the area leading to another round of showers. The timing of 
these look to be during the latter half of the day and again mainly 
confined to parts of the Missouri Valley to perhaps as far east as 
the U.S. Highway 281 corridor. During the aftn hrs, we may get 
enough daytime heating to occur allowing for some isolated showers 
and storms to pop up across parts of northeast SD and west central 
MN. Can't rule out a localized downpour that should be brief in 
nature. Deep layer shear here is adequate(40-50 kts), but 
instability looks to be really lacking, so not expecting any robust 
convection.

The remainder of the holiday weekend will potentially remain 
unsettled for parts of the forecast area. An upper trough is progged 
to sink south out of Canada into ND and combine with some energy 
rotating northeast out of the Rockies late in the weekend into early 
next week. This will help to maintain daily precip chances in the 
same areas of the CWA(west of the James Valley) on Sunday into 
Memorial Day. Monday will feature more of this activity farther east 
into into the James Valley and other areas of northeast SD and west 
central MN. Guidance then exhibits some differences in the upper 
flow pattern by mid-late next week. Most solutions want to generate 
the aforementioned upper trough into a closed low for a period of 
time either across the Northern Plains or Upper Midwest/western 
Great Lakes, then eventually becoming more of an open wave late in 
the week as it shifts east. Differences in placement of this feature 
exist at this time which will either lead to higher chances of 
precip for our area or not so much. We'll continue to keep an eye on 
those trends the next few days, but it does appear that the 
unsettled pattern could linger a bit longer through most of the work 
week.

Temperatures over the course of the holiday weekend will remain 
below normal for late May thanks to thicker cloud cover and rainfall 
moving through. The general consensus is that it will remain cooler 
west(50s-low 60s) and warmer east(mid 60s-near 70) through Tuesday. 
A bit a warming trend, perhaps getting back to around normal, will 
be possible the latter half of next week as we start to advect a 
warmer air mass into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

An area of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will continue
moving across portions of central South Dakota this afternoon.
Best chances will occur at KPIR, while KMBG/KABR/KATY see more
VCSH type activity through the afternoon. VFR conditions are
expected to prevail at KABR/KATY through this TAF cycle. However,
MVFR/IFR cigs will be possible at KPIR/KMBG this afternoon, but
moreso tonight into Saturday morning. KPIR could also see MVFR
vsbys during periods of steadier rain showers this afternoon. 
Rain showers are expected to diminish and move south and east of 
the area by late this evening into the overnight hours.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...Vipond