FXUS63 KAPX 030628 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 228 AM EDT Sat May 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Decreasing clouds today. -Dry Sunday with seasonable temperatures amid increasing clouds. -Rain chances Sunday night through Tuesday due to slow-moving low pressure lazily spinning north and east through Lake Huron. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 227 AM EDT Sat May 3 2025 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Upper-level longwave trough axis is currently draped from Hudson Bay south/southwestward across the western Great Lakes into the MO Valley and far southern Plains. This wave cuts off to our south this afternoon and pinwheels around the TN/OH Valleys through the remainder of the weekend (and beyond). At the surface, high pressure is stretched from western Quebec southwestward over the western Great Lakes and into the Plains. This area of high pressure will really dominate northern MI's weather through the duration of the short term forecast period. Forecast Details: Lots of low clouds across northern MI as of 06z, which will likely to remain the case through much of the morning. However, we should have better success today at mixing out that low- level moisture with sun gradually eroding cloud cover from the shorelines inward. Cloudy/mostly cloudy skies lasting longest up the spine of northern lower into interior eastern upper MI with partly to mostly sunny skies expected area-wide by mid-late afternoon. Generally light north-northeasterly winds today with high temps in the 50s area-wide (perhaps mid-upper 40s at the immediate lakeshores). Not much change tonight with just some high clouds working overhead resulting in partly cloudy skies. Temperatures falling into the 30s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 227 AM EDT Sat May 3 2025 Pattern Details: Developing Rex Block over eastern NOAM underway as gangbuster ridge over the Dakotas and Canadian prairies flexes, suppressing slow moving upper level low pressure over the Ohio Valley. This area of low pressure will move northward into Michigan Sunday afternoon, where it will slowly plod along the Lake Huron shore through Tuesday before washing out and its energy forced eastward by the amplifying Plains ridge. This will set the stage for an Omega Block to develop over the entirety of NOAM... ridging looks to spike northward well into Canada, while another cutoff low materializes in the Four Corners region before moving east of the Rockies, generating ample convective responses south of the I-80 corridor... while the ridging regime folds eastward and appears to hold things dry across northern Michigan to close out the forecast period. Forecast Summary: Sunday starts dry with ample sunshine across much of the area, with slow moving cloud deck from the northward advancing cutoff low intruding into Gladwin and Arenac counties through the morning, eventually making its way to the Bridge by sunset. East-northeast winds (sustained 5-15mph, gusts 20-25+ mph) will be dominant, so there will be a breezy feel... marine influences likely keep RHs lower in NE lower, while downsloping aids in lowering RH to the west... so will have to watch Manistee National Forest for fire danger potential on Sunday and perhaps even Monday too. Highs generally in the 60s (warmest NW loer end eastern upper), but those near Lake Huron will feel all of that marine influences... wouldn't be surprising to see Alpena, Oscoda, Harrisville, Cheboygan, Rogers City, Drummond Island, St. Iggy, etc. to struggle to break much over 50, while spots to the M-33 corridor reach right around 60. Influences from this cutoff low will really take shape Sunday evening / night. SE flow aloft will draw in plentiuful moisture, and should lead to some stratiform rain occurrences across much of the area, in particular, east of a Cadillac to De Tour Village line, Sunday evening through Tuesday night into Wednesday. Once this system washes out and drifts east toward Ontario, we likely dry out after Wednesday, with temperatures in the 60s and perhaps even 70s by next weekend. Will have to see what the influences of this cutoff low are after it moves east. Some guidance wants to have it retrograde westward from Ontario into Michigan, which, of course, would have implications on our forecast later in the period... Given that heavily blocked patterns are annoyingly difficult to nail down several days in advance, there just is not enough confidence to install this retrograding scenario into the forecast at this juncture, but beware that there is potential for there to not just be a fly in the ointment, but a whole dang species of flies in the ointment if wholesale changes are necessitated. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1154 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025 MVFR ceilings to start everywhere except at KMBL with just some scattered mid clouds...with the expectation that IFR flight conditions will develop during the pre-dawn hours. Ceilings should improve to MVFR Saturday morning though will be more pessimistic on the clearing trend with MVFR ceilings expected to persist until late Saturday afternoon or more likely Saturday evening before clouds scatter out. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MJG LONG TERM...HAD AVIATION...JPB