FXUS63 KARX 151030 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 530 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - An active weather pattern continues for this week. As typical, the predictability in this pattern is low. At this time, the highest severe weather chances (2 out of a 5 risk) look to be on Monday evening. - Maybe some record warm minimum temperatures for some next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Late This Afternoon and Evening There continues to be much uncertainty for late this afternoon and evening on the convective potential. The CAMs continue to indicate that the showers and storms will push the boundary just southwest and south of the area this morning. With cloud cover north of this boundary, this may keep this front from sliding back to the north this afternoon. If this occurs, much of the convection for late this afternoon and evening may stay just west and south of our area. Many of the CAMs currently favor this scenario. Monday Afternoon and Evening A shortwave trough will move southeast through the eastern South Dakota, western Minnesota, northwest Iowa and northern Nebraska on Monday afternoon, and through western Wisconsin, southeast Minnesota, southern Nebraska, and eastern and southern Iowa on Monday night. As this wave moves east, there will be a 50 knot speed maximum moving across southwest Minnesota during the afternoon. This speed max will lengthen the 0-6 km shear vector (up to 50 knots of shear) across southwest Minnesota. This nearly straightline hodograph would favor splitting supercell thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes all possible. As their cold pools coalesce, these storms will eventually form into a line as it moves through our area between 6 pm and midnight. Damaging winds and hail will be the primary threats. Secondary threats will include the potential for QLCS tornadoes and heavy rain. The SPC Day 2 Outlook has a enhanced risk (level 3 out of 5) just to our northwest and west and a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) in north-central Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and west- central Wisconsin. Elsewhere in our area, there is a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5). Another shortwave trough will move through the region. While the better shear is located in our area, the better instability remains south of the area from central Iowa southeast into Kansas. Due to this, our area is in a marginal risk for severe weather and areas to our south and southwest are in a slight risk. Tuesday Night into Wednesday Night Like the past several days, the models are in good agreement that a longwave trough will move east through the Mid and Upper Mississippi River Valley. This will bring another round of showers and storms to the area. It continues to look like the better severe weather chances will remain east and southeast of our area. Thursday into Friday The 500 mb ridge builds northeast into the area. It continues to look like a MCS will develop over the Dakotas and northwest Minnesota during the evening. This system will then move southeast in a decaying mode through our area on Friday morning. Next Weekend A strong 594 mb ridge will move east into the Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys. It continues that the northern extent of the ridge will be located over the Upper Mississippi River Valley and Great Lakes. If this occurs, anomalous warmth would build across the region. High temperatures may range from the mid-80s to lower 90s. Low temperatures may range from the mid-60s to mid-70s. The low temperatures may be warm enough for a few record warm minimum temperatures to be tied or broken. Please see the climate section for more details on the warm minimum temperatures records for La Crosse and Rochester. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 530 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 CIGS: MVFR favored into the afternoon with short term models improving to a bkn VFR deck by 20-00z. These cigs should hold into the overnight. Some suggestions in a few models that MVFR could return toward 12z Mon. Enough uncertainty that will hold with the VFR for now. WX/vsby: the early morning shra/ts will continue to shift south and east of KRST/KLSE, and likely pulling away by 12z issuance this morning. The rest of the day is trending dry. Moving into tonight a shortwave trough looks to spark another cluster of storms, but CAMS taking this from southwest MN into central IA, bypassing KRST/KLSE. Will keep the TAFs sans any rain chances for now. WINDS: generally northeast to southeast and under 10 kts through the period. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 209 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 The global models are in general agreement that a strong upper level ridge will build across the region for next weekend. High temperatures may range from the mid-80s to lower 90s. Low temperatures may range from the mid-60s to mid-70s. The low temperatures may be warm enough for a few record warm minimum temperatures to be tied or broken. Below are the warm low records for next weekend. June 21 (Saturday) La Crosse WI 74F in 1943 Rochester MN 72F in 1943 June 22 (Sunday) La Crosse WI 75F in 1983 Rochester MN 71F in 1983 && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Boyne AVIATION...Rieck CLIMATE...Boyne