FXUS63 KARX 041837 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 135 pM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Smoke continues to push east/south through the afternoon. Portions of northeast IA and southwest WI will continue to be impacted into Thu morning. - Periods of showers Friday into Monday. Mostly light with amounts from 1/4 to 3/4" through the period currently forecast. A storm or two but low to none for strong/severe risk. - Seasonal to cool temperatures into early next week with warming for the latter half (back into the 80s). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 135 pm CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 SMOKE: will continue to exit south/east of the local area through the afternoon hours. Most have experienced rapid improvement, but parts of NE IA and southwest WI will continue to experience smoke related issues into Thu morning. Air Quality Alerts continue in those areas. INTO THE WEEKEND: unsettled weather pattern persists with occasional rain chances and seasonable temps. No storm systems/impactful weather of note. The region looks to hold under the mostly northwest flow/troughing in the upper levels for the rest of the week. The rest of today through Thu is trending dry but bits of shortwave energy start to creep in Thu night/Fri, with a more distinct shortwave/closed 500mb low dropping southeast out of Canada for Sun/Mon. A sfc cold front will be tied to this trough, with a secondary cold front/trough hanging westward as the system starts to exit east. Rain chances are tied to all the features and expectations are for periods of rain (on and off) Fri through Mon. Not expecting "a lot" of rain at this time - and probably more of the "light" variety. Not much for low level moisture transport through the period - aside from Monday. PWs mostly around 1 inch or less. The Grand Ensemble model blend suggests from 1/4 to 3/4" (25-75%) for QPF through that stretch of days. Potential for 1+" is about 10% or less. Instability also meager at best without much wind shear to support storm development. Enough to have some threat for thunder, but any strong/severe risk looks low to none. NEXT WEEK: trending warmer and drier - at least by the mid part of the work week. The long range guidance is in favor of a shift in the upper level pattern as we move into the middle part of next week. Out is the upper level trough...In is upper level ridging. WPC clusters all favor this, with some differences in timing/strength of the ridge. Overall, sensible weather outcomes would be a spate of drier days, potentially as early as Tue, continuing into the following weekend. Temps would also be on the upswing with 50% of the EPS members pushing highs back into the 80s. Top end outcomes suggest 90 could be reached. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1135 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 CIGS: a few high thin clouds into tonight. A BKN mid level deck (10 kft) looks to be moving in from the southwest Thu afternoon - associated with a ripple in the upper level flow. Should stay VFR. WX/vsby: smoke is quickly clearing south and east this afternoon. Don't anticipate any more impacts related to that at the TAF sites. Many of the CAMS models want to produce spotty to scattered light pcpn with that shortwave for Thu afternoon/evening. With considerable dry air in the sub cloud layer, pcpn will be hard pressed to make the sfc. Will hold with a dry forecast for now. WINDS: light wind field. Northwesterly this afternoon then more south/southeast tonight-Thu morning. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rieck AVIATION.....Rieck