FXUS63 KDDC 030807 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 307 AM CDT Sat May 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost advisory until 8am this morning west of highway 83 and north of a Johnson City to Sublette line, for sunrise temperatures in the lower 30s. - Dry and pleasant spring weather Saturday and Sunday. - Widespread beneficial rainfall during the first half of the work week. The Weather Prediction Center has all of southwest Kansas in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 232 AM CDT Sat May 3 2025 Earlier this morning a reinforcing surge of cooler air was spreading across southwest Kansas as an upper level trough moves across central Kansas. An area of high pressure at the surface was located over western Kansas. As this surface high crosses western Kansas this morning it result in light winds under clear conditions which will favor temperatures falling back into the 29 to 32 degree range for several hours west of highway 83, especially west and north of the Garden City area. Based on this a frost advisory is currently in effect until 8am. For today the area of high pressure at the surface over western Kansas earlier this morning will gradually drift east today as northwesterly downslope flow improves...particularly over eastern Colorado and far western Kansas. This set up today will will limit how long the cooler air lingers across southwest Kansas given the developing downslope flow. Short term model guidance are in good agreement that afternoon temperatures will be 3–7 degrees warmer than Fridays highs. On Sunday, the 24hour 850mb temperature trend from 00Z Sunday to 00Z Monday suggests similar temperatures Sunday afternoon, as mid to high level clouds begin spreading over the region due to an upper low moving slowly east from southern California into Arizona. From Sunday night through early next week the deterministic models and ensemble clusters remain consistent with previous runs with a cutoff upper low over the southwestern United States moving slowly east. As this occurs, increasing southeast winds will enhance moisture return to southwest Kansas. This increasing moisture combined with improving 850-700mb forcing and upper level difluent flow ahead of this approaching upper low will result in widespread rainfall across southwest Kansas for several days. As for the risk of severe weather early next week...southwest Kansas will be on the northern edge of the stronger instability, keeping the risk of severe weather very low/nil. Rainfall totals early next week in excess of 1 inch appears likely across southwest Kansas. The latest NBM shows a 60-70% chance of more than 1 inch of rainfall from 7am Monday through 7 am Wednesday, with a few areas exceeding 2 inches. Given this rainfall expected WPC has placed all of southwest Kansas in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall and there is also a small area of slight risk for excesses rainfall south of Dodge City. In addition to Tuesdays widespread rain, temperatures will be unseasonably cool. Forecast guidance still supports Tuesday being the coolest day next week. Even given these cool forecast highs on Tuesday the current NBM forecast for highs may end up being slightly too warm. It may be better to plan for the cooler 25th percentile temperatures Tuesday afternoon which will range from around 50 to near 55. By mid week the ensemble solutions begin to diverge, but the general trends are the same and indicates that the upper low will weaken as it moves into the Plains. An upper ridge is expected to build over the Rockies and Northern Plains bringing an end to widespread steady rainfall. Still, it appears scattered showers (20-40% chance) may occur Thursday and Friday. Rainfall amounts during this time are expected to be significantly lower than what is expected early in the work week. The probability of receiving more than 0.25 inches of rain in 24 hours is 20-40% on Thursday and 20% or less on Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat May 3 2025 An area of surface high pressure will move across western Kansas through early Saturday resulting in light and variable winds through 18Z Saturday. Winds will then shift to the southeast at around 10 knots for the remainder of the day as the high slides east and a trough of low pressure begins to develop along the lee of the Rockies. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ this morning for KSZ043-061>063-074>076. && $$ DISCUSSION...Burgert AVIATION...Burgert