FXUS63 KDTX 021046 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 646 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler conditions this weekend into early next week with periodic light showers. && .AVIATION... Skies are a bit chaotic early this morning with IFR holding over SW MI with mainly MVFR over SE MI but some pockets of VFR persisting as well. Will go predominately MVFR as a weak disturbance ripples up along a cold front dropping through the area early in the afternoon. Could see some light showers across the Detroit area taf sites from about 15-18Z with briefly lowered CIGS, otherwise should see an improving trend through the day. The front will be hung up to our south this evening but bulge back north tonight which could result in more light showers mainly for the Detroit area sites, but confidence is too low to put a mention in at this time. Instead will drop CIGS back to MVFR. Winds will be westerly to start the day but will veer through north this evening eventually becoming northeasterly tonight. For DTW/D21 Convection... No convection expected in the forecast period. THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Medium for ceiling at or below 5000 feet this morning and again tonight. Low this evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025 DISCUSSION... Still a lot of upper level energy back across the Central/Northern Plains early this morning, which is ultimately going to cutoff over the Ohio Valley this weekend into early next week. Subsequently, the warm conveyor belt/moisture axis will be arching back west into the Central Great Lakes, which should assure occasional showers return in the Sunday-Monday time frame. Euro ensembles indicating greater than a 70 percent chance of a tenth of inch or greater in that time period, with still a good chance of showers on Tuesday as well. Even today, drying is slow to occur from northwest to southeast, and the 850 MB Theta-E gradient is along the southern Michigan border. With a shortwave tracking through northern Lower Michigan, scattered shower development appears likely south of I-69 with the weak surface reflection also tracking through the southern half of the CWA. Outside chance of an isolated thunderstorm south of I-94 with SBcapes around 500 J/kg near the southern Michigan border. However, the mid levels are very dry and entrainment will probably be too much for the skinny cape. Cold advection into Saturday, as 850 MB temps lower into the single numbers. Min temps likely dipping into the upper 30s north of I-69 Saturday night, with increasing clouds south holding temps in the low to mid 40s. Temps modify early next week, but maxes likely holding at or slightly below normal with the unsettle pattern. A northern stream trough tracking east through Central Canada for the mid week period is expected to act as a kicker, with rising heights and modest warming for Wednesday and possibly Thursday. However, if these systems merge faster, a re-enforcing shot of cool air may arrive earlier, and thus the uncertainty for Thursday. MARINE... Low pressure will continue to exit northern Lake Huron early this morning, with a brief period of 20-25 knots west to southwest winds filling in behind the departing low. As the low continues to depart the region and the surface pressure gradient relaxes, westerly winds will begin to relax to around 10-15 knots around sunrise. Late Friday afternoon and evening, a cold front drops south across the central Great Lakes and north to northeast winds take over. These north to northeast winds remain locked in through the weekend as high pressure builds into the region from the northwest. At times this weekend, this pattern will likely result in some localized area of gusty winds of 20-25 knots funneling into the Saginaw Bay area and the southern Lake Huron Basin. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....DRK DISCUSSION...SF MARINE.......JA You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.