FXUS63 KEAX 030733 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 233 AM CDT Sat May 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Weekend: Generally dry, on the seasonable to seasonably cool side - Areas along/east of Hwy 63 may see very light precip today * Next Week: Active pattern returns by mid-week, potential for shower/thunder chances to persist through end of week. - Risk for strong/severe storms quite low - Mostly seasonable temperatures && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 AM CDT Sat May 3 2025 After a few storms produced sub-severe hail yesterday evening, activity largely wound down by midnight/1am time frame across central to northern Missouri. Upper level trough responsible for pushing boundary and initiating storms continues to trek across region, seen clearly on water vapor imagery. May see some pockets/areas of fog develop in areas underneath mostly clear skies and light winds, with NW areas most likely to achieve. Elsewhere, area of stratus dropping through Iowa will begin to fill in over areas from around Hwy 65 eastward remainder of overnight and into the morning. As upper level trough continues to slide through tonight, expectation remains for it to become cutoff just east of here, over the western Ohio River Valley. Concurrently, western CONUS trough too expected to become cutoff over the SW US later today, setting up a compact Omega Block pattern with ridging up into the Canadian Plains. Residing on the eastern edge of the ridging, but within the cooler influence of the cutoff upper low, conditions to remain largely quiet and cool across the area. Areas east of Hwy 65 (Trenton/Chillicothe) today likely to remain mostly cloudy with potential for some very light rain/drizzle. Best chances for precipitation tied closer to Hwy 63 (Kirksville/Macon/Moberly) and eastward. By Sunday, cutoff low drifts far enough eastward to allow skies to clear. Expect seasonably cool temperatures ranging from mid 60s west to upper 50s east today, then a few degrees warmer Sunday. Quiet conditions continue to prevail early week as upper level ridging generally present, but Omega Block begins to gradually break down as cutoff lows drift eastward and begin to break down/become absorbed into broader flow. Another blocking pattern may emerge, but admittedly appears quite messy among the current run (00z) deterministic synoptic models, a High Over Low pattern. Regardless, broad agreement in dry conditions ending Tuesday night as the western cutoff low drifts into the central/southern Plains. From here, evolution varies a bit among guidance/ensembles, but generally lingers shower/weak thunder chances from Tuesday night through the end of the work week. Notably less SB/MUCAPE depictions within current set of deterministics, suggesting primarily showers and isolated thunder opportunities. Or put another way, negligible risk for strong/severe. NBM PoPs understandably peak Tuesday night into Wednesday (40%-70%), then trail off remainder of week with periods of ~30% or less chances. Temperatures largely expected to be seasonable, even with NBM spreads of 6 to 8 deg F, in the mid-upper 60s to mid 70s. Lower vs higher end temps mainly dependent on cloud cover/precip opportunities. Peeking into next weekend, suggestions blocking pattern shifts, but lingers. These suggestions would point towards high pressure influence over the area, resulting in clear and warmer conditions. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025 Elongated surface ridge from the western Great Lakes to the western plains will lead to light west-northwest winds through the overnight into Saturday. Lingering low level moisture could lead to pockets of fog in favored areas overnight. Have added a mention of lower visibility at KSTJ after 09Z. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Curtis AVIATION...BT