FXUS63 KFGF 030520
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1220 AM CDT Sat May 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather is possible across portions of 
  northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota on 
  Sunday. The highest probability is expected along and north of
  Highway 200.

&&

UPDATE
Issued at 1023 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025

Surface high pressure continues to slide east with light winds
across the region. Skies have cleared out across much of the
region, with high clouds expected to increase in our north for a
period later tonight/early Saturday morning. Adjustments were 
made to near term trends, otherwise forecast is on track with 
lows in the mid 30s under the surface ridge in the east to near
40 where southerly winds increase late. 

UPDATE
Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025

Forecast is on track with diurnal CU already showing signs of
clearing as we are past peak heating and we are beginning to
decouple. Much drier air is moving into the region west to east,
so while surface high may linger longer in our east ground fog
chances are significantly reduced. Adjustments were made to near
term trends.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025

...Synopsis...

Ridging builds into the area today into Saturday, allowing 
temperatures to climb into the 70s for most locations in eastern 
North Dakota and northwest and west-central Minnesota. The ridge 
axis passes through the region on Sunday before weakening heading 
into Monday and Tuesday. This will be enough to keep a mention of 
afternoon highs in the 70s for both Sunday and Monday. Heading into 
Monday night and Tuesday, a shortwave traverses the southwestern 
side of a larger H5 low over the Hudson Bay. The resultant shortwave 
looks to extend southward into parts of the Northern Plains and 
Upper Midwest, bringing a chance for showers and isolated 
thunderstorms. At this time, the highest chances for precipitation 
are expected in northeastern North Dakota and the northern Red River 
Valley. Looking at soundings, a dry air mass may inhibit much of 
this precipitation from reaching the ground. Ridging builds back 
into the area late Wednesday and Thursday with minimal chances for 
precipitation both days.

...Near Critical Fire Weather Sunday...

Dry air remains in place for Sunday, along with breezy south winds 
of 15-20 mph which could gust up to 30 mph. The highest winds are 
supported in northeastern North Dakota, the northern Red River 
Valley, and portions of northwest Minnesota. Sustained south winds 
of 15 to 20 mph are possible with gusts up to 30 mph during the 
afternoon and evening. This combination justifies at least a mention 
of near-critical fire weather conditions for Sunday afternoon and 
evening.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat May 3 2025

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period. Southerly
winds will develop overnight, increasing as we mix out into
Saturday afternoon. This will lead to a few gusts from the Red
River Valley and points west. Following the diurnal cycle, 
gusts will drop off Saturday evening. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Rafferty