FXUS63 KGRB 031149
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
649 AM CDT Sat May 3 2025

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry weather is expected through next week. The only
  chance for rain showers (25-40%) will be Sunday night along the
  Lake Michigan shoreline. Little to no impacts expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 445 AM CDT Sat May 3 2025

Short Term...Today...Tonight...and Sunday

An upper-level shortwave trough resided over the state this morning, 
keeping low-level clouds/moisture across the region. Where moisture 
profiles were more saturated across southern WI, light rain showers 
prevailed. These rain showers were occurring in the southern most 
portion of the forecast area earlier, but have since dissipated due 
to the shortwave trough slowly departing the region to the 
southeast. Additionally, surface high pressure is slowly working 
into the region from the northwest as seen on satellite imagery with 
the low clouds dissolving in northwest WI.

The surface high pressure is expected to slowly shift over the 
region throughout the day. As a result, clouds will dissipate from 
north to south. However, the timing of the clearing has slowed from 
the previous forecast. The slower departure will cause cooler 
temperatures for today rising to the mid to low 60s away from the 
lake and upper 40s to low 50s along the lake.

The quiet and dry conditions will continue tonight and Sunday due to 
the high pressure residing overhead. The mostly sunny skies on 
Sunday will result in temperatures warming above normal for most 
locations in central and north-central WI (highs in the mid 60s to 
low 70s). But, east-northeast flow off of Lake MI, due to the 
proximity of a closed low over the Ohio River Valley, will result in 
slightly cooler temperatures in east-central and far northeast WI 
with highs ranging from the low to mid 60s. Even cooler temperatures 
are anticipated right along the lakeshore in the mid 50s.

Long Term...Sunday Night Through Friday

The aforementioned closed low over the Ohio River Valley will become 
a cut-off low and sit over that region through Tuesday. Due to its 
close proximity to the forecast area, the east-northeast flow off of 
Lake MI will result in periods of clouds over eastern WI through 
Tuesday. There will also be a brief period of potential rain showers 
shifting into far eastern WI Sunday night into Monday, but impacts 
are not expected. Following the departure of the cut-off low, models 
indicate the next potential chance for rain to occur on Wednesday 
from a weak cold frontal passage. However, rain chances have 
decreased due to a lack in upper-level forcing.

Temperatures will generally be near normal throughout next week, but 
on days when little clouds are anticipated, temperatures may rise 
into the low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 649 AM CDT Sat May 3 2025

A mix of IFR and MVFR cigs prevailed across the region this
morning with patchy fog reducing vsbys at the central and north-
central WI TAF sites. Anticipate the low cigs to stick around
through the morning with clouds gradually decreasing from north to
south during the afternoon. By 20z, anticipate all TAF sites 
becoming VFR. VFR conditions with mostly clear skies are
anticipated through the remainder of this TAF period.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kruk
AVIATION.......Kruk