FXUS63 KICT 062337
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
637 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of showers and storms tonight through early 
  Saturday, especially over southern Kansas.

- Additional chance for rain Sunday evening with the better
  chances in southeast Kansas

- Quiet and dry conditions expected Monday through Wednesday
  with rain chances increasing on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Currently, there is a longwave trough extending from the Northern 
Plains to off the coast of California with multiple embedded 
shortwave troughs, resulting in westerly flow aloft in our area.

Tonight, a shortwave trough approaches from the northwest, providing 
another opportunity for showers and storms overnight into Saturday 
morning. As the warm front lifts north near the KS/OK border, 
moisture and instability increase. Dewpoints are expected to climb 
into the upper 60s with values of MUCAPE generally between 1000-1500 
J/kg. With ample deep layer shear and instability, severe storms are 
possible. The main impacts would be 60 mph winds, nickel sized hail, 
and heavy rainfall. The best storm chances are likely in south-
central to southern KS with the heaviest rainfall expected in 
Kingman, Harper and Sumner counties. 

Continuing into the weekend, flow aloft will start to shift more 
westerly to northwesterly Saturday afternoon and continue into 
Sunday. Temperatures will continue to rise with highs climbing into 
the mid to upper 80s on Sunday, though it won’t last as a cold front 
is expected to move through Sunday night. With this cold front, an 
additional chance for rainfall is possible Sunday evening into 
Monday morning. Model guidance has decent instability and deep layer 
shear, making strong to severe storms possible with the better 
chances in southeast Kansas. Uncertainty is high at this time due to 
model discrepancy, stay tuned for forecast updates. 

By Monday night, ridging builds into the Great Plains with its 
associated surface high keeping conditions quiet and dry through 
Wednesday. After Wednesday, flow aloft becomes more southerly to 
southwesterly along with southerly flow returning at the surface. 
With moisture transport increasing going into Thursday, showers and 
storms are possible Thursday though this forecast will be refined as 
it gets closer. Temperatures throughout the week are expected to be 
near normal with most highs in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will move eastward
across the region later tonight mainly affecting southern
Kansas. Low clouds will also spread over the the entire area
tonight and will scatter out from west to east during the 
morning hours on Saturday. Showers and storms should shift east 
of the area by around sunrise.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ082-091>093-
098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC/VJP
AVIATION...CDJ