FXUS63 KICT 191917
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
217 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorm potential this afternoon-evening.

- Quiet weather Tuesday-Thursday.

- More active weather possible Thursday night through early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING:

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and 
evening, as a dryline/cold front combo sharpens near the I-135 
corridor, and a deep upper trough approaches from the west. Ample 
effective deep layer shear of 50-60 kts and very strong buoyancy 
upwards of 3000-4000 J/kg will support the potential for severe 
storms, capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few 
tornadoes. Thinking areas generally along/east of a line extending 
from Salina to Hutchinson to Anthony have the greatest potential for 
storms.

Deep layer shear vectors have a strong parallel component to the 
dryline/cold front, in addition to more pronounced upper forcing and 
stout mid-level cooling approaching from the west. Consequently, 
storm mode may tend to be a bit messier, with the potential for 
several storms close together and associated storm mergers, which 
could tend to limit the number of storms capable of higher-end 
severe weather. However, long and straight hodographs in conjunction 
with the strong buoyancy will support splitting supercells capable 
of large hail and damaging winds. Could also see a handful of 
tornadoes as well given the ample low-level buoyancy, especially 
with any supercells that can track to the right of the hodograph. 
Even if storms are spaced close together, strong 0-1km storm-
relative flow from the east would support mostly undisturbed storm 
inflow, especially for right-moving supercells. Furthermore, can't 
rule out a landspout tornado threat before 8 PM, especially in 
vicinity of the slow-moving dryline/cold front near and either side 
of I-135, given the strong buoyancy amidst strengthening low-level 
vorticity along the frontal zone. Thinking the highest severe threat 
will exit southeast KS to the east by around midnight.

Later this evening and tonight in back of the departing severe 
threat, a secondary area of showers/storms is expected to move in 
from the west, immediately ahead of the negatively tilted deep upper 
trough. Ample instability amidst the cold air aloft along with 
adequate deep layer shear could support some large hail with this 
final round of activity. 

ACTIVE PATTERN POSSIBLY RETURNING BY LATE WEEK:

The pattern could turn favorable for periodic storm chances 
returning by Thursday night, and persisting into early next week, as 
west-northwest flow aloft develops over the region, and gradually 
transitions to zonal to perhaps southwest flow aloft. Given the 
potential for modest instability and decent deep layer shear, this 
pattern could favor periodic bouts of strong to perhaps severe 
storms, along with locally heavy rainfall. Stay tuned as we refine 
forecast details in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to increase
across the region this afternoon and evening, generally along
and east of a line extending from Salina to Hutchinson to
Anthony, and gradually exiting southeast KS to the east by 
around midnight. The strongest activity will be capable of large
hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. 

In back of this first area of storms, a secondary area of 
showers and storms could progress east across central and 
eastern Kansas later this evening and overnight, posing a threat
for marginally severe hail. Did not include this 2nd threat in
the TAFs just yet, and will re-evaluate for the 00z issuance.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK