FXUS63 KIND 021748 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 148 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous showers into tonight, with a few thunderstorms possible - An isolated strong storm is possible in the far southeast this afternoon - Cooler and unsettled with periodic showers and thunderstorms this weekend and into early next week && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 1045 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025 Updated the forecast which included upping the temperatures slightly as well as sky cover to account for current conditions. A front is approaching the region, formed off of a low centered over Quebec, and watching a meso complex well to the SW that is generally moving up along the front. High cirrus clouds from the complex have already reached our SW counties and clouds will continue to increase through the day. PoPs will also increase through the day with best chances for showers and thunderstorms this evening to overnight, mainly across the south. && .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... Issued at 255 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025 Early this morning, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continued across central Indiana. Some weak upper forcing in west/southwest flow aloft was helping these continue across the area. Additional scattered convection in central Illinois was ahead of a weak front. The convection should continue overnight as the weak forcing does, with some instability feeding the convection. There may be some diminishment/weakening toward sunrise, but there looks to be enough instability to keep some of it going. Will continue with slight chance/chance PoPs as needed early this morning. Around 12Z, the front will be crossing the forecast area. Will keep some low PoPs along and ahead of the front. The front will then settle across the southeast area this afternoon. Will lower or end PoPs behind the front for a while into the afternoon. There remains some uncertainty on an initial upper wave/surface low and when it will move along the front, enhancing shower and storm coverage. It could move in by mid afternoon or wait until late afternoon/early evening. Either way, the southern forecast area will have the best PoPs as this is where the front will be. Will increase PoPs mid afternoon into early evening for now until better details in timing can be determined. Another surface wave will move along the boundary overnight, bringing more chances for rain to the area, especially south. Depending on where the boundary ends up this afternoon, there could be a strong storm in the far southeast where the relatively better instability will be. However, most if not all strong to severe storms should remain south of central Indiana where the bulk of instability will reside. && .LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)... Issued at 255 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025 The long term period will be characterized by a somewhat stagnant pattern featuring a couple of cutoff upper level low pressure centers, which will impact the area over the weekend into early next week, with the second following mid to late week. This will lead to seasonably cool and dreary conditions through the weekend into Monday, with near constant chances for showers and occasionally a few thunderstorms. As the first low departs, a break in rain chances is expected Monday night into Tuesday night before the threat for showers returns Wednesday onward. Differences in model handling of the blocky pattern and particularly the second low pressure system leads to lower confidence and thus lower PoPs later in the forecast period. Temperatures will moderate mid to late week as the mid to upper level cold pool associated with the first low departs, though as with precipitation chances, uncertainty is higher in this regard, as some guidance shows a connection to a longwave trough developing with the second low, which could allow another intrusion of cooler air into the region. Nonetheless, the story of the next week or so will be temperatures near to below normal and frequently damp and dreary conditions. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 148 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025 Impacts: - Scattered showers developing tonight, increasing in coverage through Saturday - Deteriorating cigs and vis tonight, MVFR cigs likely Saturday Discussion: Satellite imagery shows a frontal boundary pushing through Central Indiana this afternoon with mainly high clouds and VFR cigs behind it at. Brief periods of MVFR cigs at KBMG this afternoon, but expect rising ceilings as low level dry air filters in. SW winds this afternoon will gradually become W then NE during the overnight hours. Gusts to 20 kts should diminish over the next few hours at all sites. Winds tomorrow afternoon may reach the 10-13 kt range with an isolated gust if convective showers develop during the day. For the weekend, an upper low becomes cut off from the main flow and stalls out over the region resulting in an extended period of scattered to numerous showers and MVFR or worse conditions Saturday and beyond the current TAF period. Expect lowering ceilings overnight tonight to MVFR levels with showers increasing in coverage through the day. Lower confidence in thunderstorms at the end of the TAF period on Saturday afternoon; however a few lightning strikes are not out of the question. Omitting this from the TAFs at the moment as confidence is low on exactly where this may occur, but still something to watch. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...KF SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM...Nield AVIATION...CM