FXUS63 KIWX 022311
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
711 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing chance for showers tonight.

- Episodic showers through at least Tuesday.

-Cool this weekend with highs in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

An area of showers and thunderstorms across the mid-Mississippi 
Valley will track northeast along a frontal boundary tonight, guided 
by southwesterly 500-mb flow. The HREF mean suggests rain stays 
primarily east of Fort Wayne, impacting an area from Marion, IN to 
Napoleon, OH. I've adjusted POPs eastward to account for this. Near 
or after daybreak Saturday, an upper-level low seen digging into 
Missouri River valley as of this writing arrives on our door step 
with enough poleward moisture transport to spark showers across 
northwest Indiana. This is followed by a plausible diurnal uptick in 
showers in both the vicinity of this low and the aformentioned 
frontal boundary later in the day. 

Next week features numerous chances for showers as a low gets cut 
off from a mid-latitude jet displaced across Canada. This low swirls 
over the Midwest tonight through at least Tuesday. Showers appear to 
be most widespread Sunday afternoon as a deformation zone moves 
overhead with excellent moisture transport from the Atlantic. This 
low gradually moves east by midweek as a Canadian trough attempts to 
dig in over the Great Lakes. Another low by late-week moves across 
the southern Mississippi Valley and could offer additional chances 
for showers over southern areas, though rising heights aloft will 
allow for a warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 708 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

Few changes were needed for the 00Z TAFs. Winds will graudally
shift tonight from the north to the northeast. Ceilings have
mixed out to VFR this evening and will persist overnight. 
An upstream shortwave will become cutoff into 
the Ohio River Valley tomorrow, with the resultant upper level
low bringing clouds and showers to the eastern half of the area.
Expect low end VFR to high end MVFR ceilings at KSBN tomorrow,
while KFWA has showers and IFR ceilings for much of the day.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Johnson