FXUS63 KLBF 032351 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 651 PM CDT Sat May 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - High temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal on Sunday. Some increased concern for fire weather as gusty south to southeast winds combine with low relative humidity. - Rain chances increase early next week, especially across southwest Nebraska. Substantial precipitation amounts are looking less likely, however. - Scattered showers could persist into the middle of the week with near or slightly below normal temperatures. A warning trend is then expected toward the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 329 PM CDT Sat May 3 2025 Surface high pressure settles through the Missouri River Valley region tonight. Light southerly return flow continues across the area through the night on the backside of the high. Skies will remain clear tonight, but the southerly low-level flow will offset the radiational cooling effect somewhat, and no frost or near freezing temperatures are expected. The leeward trough strengthens on Sunday ahead of an upper level trough digging along the west coast. Gusty south to southeast winds develop as the surface pressure gradient tightens across the region. Dew points will rise a few degrees, with a tongue of mid 40s dew points flowing into southwest Nebraska. Drier dew points in the 30s remain across central into north central Nebraska. Temperatures look to rise into the middle 70s by Sunday afternoon. Fire weather concerns become somewhat elevated, especially across central into north central Nebraska where dew points remain in the 30s through the day. Humidity values in these areas will drop into the 22-27% range. Some recent green-up has occurred, and with only marginal/elevated concerns no headlines are anticipated. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 329 PM CDT Sat May 3 2025 Attention turns to an upper level low pressure system that should be located over Arizona by Monday evening. The Monday is a classic omega blocking pattern, with another upper level low centered across the Ohio Valley and ridging in between the two system. Convection develops Monday afternoon across the higher terrain of Colorado and New Mexico on the eastern fringes of the the Arizona upper low. This attempts to push eastward into western Kansas and perhaps southwest Nebraska late Monday night into Tuesday. It will be encountering drier air aloft and overall is likely to weaken. Monday night the upper level low pushes slowly eastward into New Mexico. Large scale lift overspreads west Texas and eastern New Mexico late Monday night, with convection likely to rapidly develop by Tuesday morning as this occurs. Southerly flow aloft will carry this convection north and eastward into much of Oklahoma and Kansas through the day Tuesday, reaching southwest Nebraska Tuesday afternoon. Overall confidence remains low on how far north the precipitation shield will reach into Nebraska. ENS/GEFS and Canadian ensemble data would suggest the majority of the heavier rainfall to remain south and southwest of the area. Far southwest Nebraska stands the highest probability of receiving up to 1/2 inch of rainfall by the time the system weakens and gets carried off to the east of the region by Thursday. Convection always brings some uncertainty to the forecast, and a slight wobble of the main upper low is certainly possible. If wobbles to the north (like the NAM suggests) heavier rainfall could materialize into portions of southwest Nebraska. Temperatures will start the week near or below normal with the expected cloud cover and possible rainfall. By the end of the week, temperatures will begin to warm again back to somewhat above normal. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 649 PM CDT Sat May 3 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Skies will remain clear to mostly clear with light southeasterly winds around 10 to 15 knots overnight, increasing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts around 25 to 30 knots during the day Sunday. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Taylor LONG TERM...Taylor AVIATION...NMJ