FXUS63 KLMK 030700 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 300 AM EDT Sat May 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Unsettled weather continues into this weekend, with showers and a few thunderstorms expected again today. An isolated severe storm will be possible in the Lake Cumberland region, but elsewhere severe storms are not expected. * Cooler temperatures and rain shower chances are expected to continue into tomorrow and Monday, with showers becoming gradually more isolated. * Daily afternoon showers and a few thunderstorms are possible mid- to-late next week. Severe weather appears unlikely at this time. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat May 3 2025 Early morning satellite and observations reveal mostly cloudy skies across southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Temperatures were generally in the lower 60s across much of the area. Area radars showed a few bands of showers across the area. The first was located across our northwest sections from Hancock county northeast through Washington county Indiana. This activity has weakened a bit over the last hour or so, but will continue to move slowly northeastward over the next several hours. The second area of showers was located over NW TN into portions of southwest KY (Todd/Logan counties). This activity isn't severe, but is putting down some good rainfall at this hour. Latest MPAS-HT runs suggest that this activity will continue to develop northeastward during the remainder of the overnight hours. By sunrise, we expect a pretty healthy rain band to be in place from roughly Hopkinsville northeast to near Frankfort. Temperatures will remain in the upper 50s to the lower 60s. For today, an area of surface low pressure is forecast to move through central and eastern KY. As this occurs, a mid-level trough axis will drop into the Ohio Valley and close off into an upper level low. The net result across our region will be mostly cloudy skies with widespread showers and some thunderstorms across the region. The most concentrated area of rainfall continues to look from roughly Hopkinsville northeastward to the Cincinnati metro area. Rainfall amounts of 1.5-2.5 inches will be possible in this corridor with perhaps up to 3 inches in spots. The amounts forecast are under current flash flood guidance criteria, but training of cells over the same areas may result in minor water issues, especially low-lying and poor drainage areas. In terms of severe weather potential, widespread cloudiness and lack of deep layer shear will greatly limit severe weather potential across the region today. The best shear and heating will be focused well to our east. While the aforementioned rain band from Hopkinsville to Cincinnati should move eastward through the day, we may see another round arcing band of low-topped convection push into southern IN/north-central KY late this afternoon/evening. Temperatures today will be below early May normals with readings in the 63-68 degree range. For tonight, evening convection will gradually wane with the setting sun, but scattered showers will likely move through the area during the overnight as the closed low slowly works eastward through Kentucky. Lows tonight will drop into the 49-53 degree range. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat May 3 2025 Sunday through Monday Night... By Sunday morning, the mid- and upper-level trough which will move toward the region today is expected to evolve into a closed low over the lower Ohio Valley. Surface low pressure which will develop later today across the region should be nearly vertically stacked by Sunday, with the low center likely located over southern OH or WV. The exact position of the mid- and upper-level low for the second half of the weekend is still uncertain, and a shift of 50-100 miles could have a notable impact on sensible weather conditions. On the west side of the closed low, northerly flow and cold advection will combine with low-level moisture, likely a stratus layer, to suppress temperatures, with some progs (e.g. NAM) struggling to warm into the 50s in the cool sector on Sunday. Scattered light rain showers and patchy drizzle/mist would also be expected. On the east side of the closed low, west-southwest flow and less cloud cover should allow for more sfc heating. This would result in steeper low-level lapse rates, which could facilitate more convective showers, and possibly some thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. At this time, it looks like areas along and west of I-65 in KY and all of southern IN are favored to be in the cool sector Sunday, while areas in east central and southern KY are favored to be in the warm sector, though this may yet change. While it does not look like Sunday will be a total washout, scattered rain showers would be expected across the area. As we go into Sunday night and Monday, a portion of the upper ridge over the central CONUS will slide to the north of the upper low over our area, resulting in temporary Rex blocking. Accordingly, it looks like the upper low won't move much on Monday, and confidence is increasing in another cool, mostly cloudy, and showery day across central KY and southern IN. The greatest coverage of showers should be in the afternoon and evening, with lesser coverage at night. Temperatures Sunday night and Monday night should fall into the upper 40s and lower 50s, with highs on Monday expected in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Tuesday through the end of Next Week... The closed upper low is expected to lift to the northeast Monday night into Tuesday, eventually being absorbed by a passing northern stream disturbance. With heights aloft increasing and more sunshine expected, temperatures should warm to more seasonable levels for Tuesday through the remainder of the week. While an afternoon shower or two is possible across the northeastern corner of the CWA, Tuesday should be the best chance to remain dry over the next four days. The next system we will have to watch is another closed upper low which is expected to meander east from the southwest US toward the central Plains during the middle of next week. Moisture return on the east side of this system will approach the Ohio Valley from the southwest on Wednesday, and should re-introduce a chance for rain. While there will be some instability as sfc dewpoints approach 60 degrees Wed. afternoon, shear is expected to be weak, so mainly showers and garden variety thunderstorms are expected. For Thursday and Friday, the forecast will be dependent on how the aforementioned upper low interacts with a northern stream trough which will try to descend across the northeast US. If that trough is able to drag the upper low far enough south, drier weather would be possible for Friday into next weekend. If the closed low remains closer to the area, then afternoon shower/storm chances would be expected to continue through the end of the week and into next weekend. Confidence in any one solution is fairly low at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 113 AM EDT Sat May 3 2025 Fairly messy forecast over the next 24-36 hours as low pressure hangs up over the area. Main weather we'll see here is showers with low cigs. Cigs look to range from MVFR down into the IFR range. Best chances of showers look to be during the day with some daytime heating. Winds will be light/variable as well given the close proximity of the upper level low. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MJ LONG TERM....CSG AVIATION.....MJ