FXUS63 KMPX 051054
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
554 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few thunderstorms likely later today into 
  Friday.

- More rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms expected this 
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

It's a very quiet morning with clear skies, light winds, and 
temperatures in the 40s and 50s. High clouds will begin
increasing later this morning as the next weather disturbance
approaches. Moisture will increase across the Plains and Upper
Midwest today with pwats eclipsing an inch by tonight. A
nebulous and disorganized shortwave in the west southwest mid
level flow will reach the Upper Midwest this evening and an
uptick in shower coverage will result. Mid level lapse rates 
are very poor, resulting in meager CAPE. CAMs appear too 
bullish in coverage and intensity of showers with some solutions
exceeding 1/2 to 3/4 inch of QPF across central MN through 
Friday morning. The global models, on the other hand, generally 
have less than 1/4 inch. The disorganized nature of this system 
with little or no instability and pwats not much above the 
climatological mean don't really point to an impressive event. 
PoPs were tempered back a bit, partially due to hourly tempo of 
the PoP grids now, but remain in the likely category across 
central and western MN tonight. Activity will wane Friday
morning, but some redevelopment is possible across southern MN 
Friday afternoon. 

Another shortwave will pass across Iowa late tonight and
Saturday. Slightly better lapse rates and modest CAPE will
increase shower potential during the afternoon. Better chances
come Saturday night with a cold front and a large upper low over
southern Canada that will track southeast to the Upper Midwest
and Great Lakes Sunday and Monday. There should be a band of
showers accompanying the front that should clear to the east
Sunday morning. As the upper low reaches MN afternoon, scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms are possible cyclonic flow
during peak heating. Activity should wane after dusk Sunday
night with redevelopment possible again Monday, especially
across WI.

Toward the middle of next week, ridging will return to the
central U.S., leading to drier and warmer conditions with highs
returning to the 80s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 554 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

VFR expected through the day, then showers will begin developing
late this afternoon across western and central MN. The showers
will spread east tonight. A few thunderstorms are possible.
Vis could trend to MVFR later tonight if showers become intense
enough. 

KMSP...No concerns today. Showers will develop later this 
evening, highest coverage to the north. MVFR vis is possible
with the showers overnight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MVFR/-SHRA likely. Wind NE 5 kts. 
SAT...VFR. Chc -TSRA. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Chc -SHRA. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...Borghoff/Dunleavy