FXUS63 KMQT 082016 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 416 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers and a few thunderstorms will move west to east across the UP through this evening. Additional showers and storms return on Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 415 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025 Visible satellite and sfc obs nicely highlight the cold front which has progressed about 2/3 of the way across Upper MI. The resulting -ra ahead of it will continue E out of the CWA by sunset, yielding an additional 0.1-0.2" for the E. Temps still ahead of the cold front currently reside in the mid 60s to low 70s, falling into the mid 50s as the front passes. In the wake of the cold front, clearing and destabilization has allowed temps to warm back into the 60s to even low 70s with SBCAPE above 500j/kg over the W per the latest RAP analysis; up to ~1000j/kg where ongoing convection is noted on radar. That said, effective wind shear is limited to ~30kts so these storms will continue to lack good organization keeping them pulse like in nature. Some pea sized hail can't be ruled out and gusts up to 30 mph are possible, but likely only with brief heavy downpours as storms collapse. Expect tsra to end this evening with the setting sun and a lull in -shra overnight. Widespread QPF of a few hundreths to 0.25" is expected with up to 0.5" in stronger convection. Temps settle into the 40s to low 50s. With the stacked low overhead on Mon, wrap-around moisture moves into the region and additional shra/tsra is expected. With only marginal instability and little bulk shear, tsra will not be strong but will provide more needed rainfall with up to 0.25" possible. Cooler temps are fcst, mainly peaking in the 60s, warmest E. Lows Mon night are expected in the 40s as shra diminishes and some patchy fog develops. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 415 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025 Some iso -shra are possible Tue afternoon over the E as a lake breeze of Lake MI provides some additional lift to diurnal instability. NBM probabilities of at least 200j/kg of CAPE are only a measly 30-60% and bulk shear doesn't increase above 30 kts until PoPs drop off so nothing strong to severe is expected. Otherwise expect a warm-up on Tue with highs in the 60s to mid 70s warmest interior W/S under partly cloudy skies. Temps settle into the 50s overnight as a shortwave and associated sfc low begins their track over N Ontario. This sends a cold front SE across the UP Tue night into Wed, potentially bringing some -shra with it. Model soundings do not show impressive available moisture with dry low levels, but PWATs do increase to around 1", so opted to increase cloud cover and add in slight chance PoPs for the entire CWA in response into Wed. The warmest temps of the fcst are expected on Wed with highs in the mid 60s and 70s for most with near 80 interior-S. Mainly dry for the remainder of Wed in the wake of the cold front. The remainder of the work week ends with zonal flow aloft leaving precip chances to shortwaves traversing the region. The first one passing over WI looks to keep shra to the S, but may graze the S UP Wed night into Thu. High pressure then increases over N Ontario Thu/Fri keeping Thu/Thu night dry. Where confidence begins to wain is Fri into the weekend. An additional shortwave emanating from the N Plains looks to bring better -shra potential to the UP. Instability is lacking so thunder is not anticipated at this time. The mid level pattern begins to break down over the weekend and confidence drops off in the fcst, so leaned into the NBM for now. The 6/8 0Z ECMWF EFI does show a SoT>0 over the W for QPF on Fri, so a significant rainfall is possible, but spread is still high as the EFI has no shading. NBM QPF for FRi peaks around 1.0". Long range guidance suggests some warmer and unstable conditions developing toward the middle portion of the month. This brings increased favorable conditions for -tsra if given strong enough forcing and ample moisture. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 218 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025 Shra/tsra will continue to develop this afternoon and evening bringing periods of MVFR in the wake of the cold front. A lull in shra is likely tonight. Wrap around moisture associated with the low pressure moving over Lake Superior tonight will lower cigs to MVFR/IFR by Mon morning with some MVFR vis. Cig improvement is anticipated toward Mon afternoon, but shra redevelops prior. Otherwise some gusts up to ~20 kts are possible this afternoon at SAW and IWD. && .MARINE... Issued at 415 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025 Southeast to southwest winds will generally stay under 15 kts tonight with variable winds under 15 kts on Monday. Gustier west to southwest winds up to around 25 kts are forecast to arrive Tuesday and Wednesday. Fog is expected in some locations this afternoon into Monday, reducing visibility under 1SM at times. In addition, hazy skies will persist this afternoon and evening as smoke from Canadian wildfires spreads across the region. A little less smoke is expected on Monday, but thicker smoke looks to return on Tuesday. Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms will continue into tonight as low pressure moves across the region. Additional scattered showers and a few storms arrive on Monday. A lingering shower will be possible on Tuesday, but most of the day is looking dry. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Jablonski LONG TERM...Jablonski AVIATION...Jablonski MARINE...Bersch