FXUS63 KPAH 241916
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
216 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...
 
- Storm total rainfall through Tuesday is expected to be in the
  1 to 2 inch range near the Bootheel and Ozark Counties in MO 
  and for most of western Kentucky. Southern IL and southwest IN
  will generally see totals less than an inch.

- The potential for organized strong to severe storms this 
  weekend will likely remain to our south and west; although, a 
  couple strong storms could brush into SEMO closer to the AR 
  border. Another round of strong storms may lift farther north 
  into SEMO and west KY on Tuesday.

- Unseasonably cool temperatures this weekend will warm closer
  to seasonal averages by the middle/end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

A frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary to the south of the 
area through Monday night before finally drifting off to the east of 
the area by Tuesday afternoon/evening. This, along with several 
shortwaves passing through the area, will keep intermittent chances 
for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through Tuesday night. 
The next wave of energy is set to arrive later tonight into Sunday 
morning, which will be the next best chance of rain, followed by 
another Sunday night into Monday. The main trough is expected to 
sweep through the area late Monday night into Tuesday. Each one of 
the waves and the final trough will bring greater chances of showers 
and storms as they pass through the area. 

The greatest focus for heavier rainfall will be closer to the 
aforementioned frontal boundary, near the AR border in SEMO and the 
TN border in western KY. Those locations have the best chance of 
seeing 1 to 2 inches of rainfall through Tuesday night, with much 
lighter totals farther north. Some localized flooding will be 
possible, but not expecting widespread issues. As far as severe 
weather goes, a few strong storms are possible near the AR border in 
SEMO and a lesser chance near the TN border in west KY. Any of these 
storms look like they would be elevated and may produce some hail 
tonight and again Sunday, but again, this seems to be a fairly low 
chance. Tuesday might be a bit more of a concerns as SBCAPE is 
forecast increase to around 1500J/kg and westerly shear increases to 
around 25-30kts as the trough approaches from the west. Dew point 
temperatures also increase into the mid 60s with temps warming into 
the mid to upper 70s. SEMO into west KY would have the greatest 
chance of seeing damaging winds and hail Tuesday into Tuesday 
evening. There is still some uncertainty with the overall pattern, 
which could keep the severe weather risk south and/or east of the 
Quad State.  It is worth keeping any eye on for now!

The rest of the week will continue to be unsettled with near to 
slightly below normal as mid-level troughing lingers across the east 
half of the CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

VFR conditions will likely linger through this evening before
ceilings steadily lower overnight and especially into the day
Sunday. MVFR conditions are expected Sunday morning as yet
another round of rain arrives. Winds are expected to remain
fairly light at or around 10kts through this TAF issuance. While
some thunder is possible, confidence in it occurring at any of
the TAF sites is low enough keep out of this issuance.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...KC