FXUS63 KSGF 022308
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
608 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and few thunderstorms will continue to 
  develop and move from west to east across the area this 
  afternoon into early this evening. No severe weather is 
  expected.
 
- Cooler temperatures will occur this weekend with highs in the
  60s and lows in the 40s.

- Additional shower and thunderstorm chances (30-60%) return to
  the area Tuesday into Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025

An upper level trough is currently moving southeast across the
Plains this afternoon. Ahead of the trough a weak front is
pushing east across extreme southeastern Kansas and far 
western Missouri early this afternoon. Scattered showers and a 
few storms are currently developing along the front. This 
activity will continue to develop and push east across the area
the rest of this afternoon into early this evening as the front
moves east. The rain will not last overly long for any given 
location and this activity will push east of the area by late 
this evening. 

The upper level trough will push east across the region tonight
into Saturday then is expected to close off into an upper level
low over Illinois on Saturday and remain in place through the 
weekend. Upper level energy will rotate around the upper level 
low and could produce some scattered light rain showers at times
mainly across portions of the eastern Ozarks through the 
weekend. Insatiability will be limited but may be just enough 
for an isolated embedded rumble of thunder to occur on Saturday 
but overall the thunderstorm chances are low (less than 15%)
this weekend.

A cooler air mass will also move over the area this weekend, as
highs will generally be in the 60s with lows in the 40s tonight
through Monday morning. There is the potential for a few 
locations to only warm into the upper 50s on Saturday and also 
for lows to drop into the upper 30s in a few locations Saturday
and Sunday nights

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025

The models then show the upper level low starting to move off 
to the northeast on Monday. A warmer air mass will start to move
into the area from the west on Monday. Highs are expected to 
range from the middle 60s across central Missouri to the lower 
70s across extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern 
Missouri on Monday. 

The ensemble model members then show another upper level low
moving across the southwestern U.S. toward the region during 
the middle of next week. There are still some differences 
between the members on the exact track, timing, and structure 
of the upper level low. Shower and thunderstorm chances (30-60%)
will return to the region as early as Tuesday and last as late 
as Thursday across the area depending on the exact track and 
timing of the upper level trough. Highs are generally expected 
to warm into the 70s Tuesday through Thursday, but if more rain 
occurs during the day, highs could remain in the 60s. If less 
rain and clouds occur highs could warm closer to the 80 degree
mark. This is all dependent on the exact track and timing of 
the trough.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 602 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025

A line of light showers is pushing east through the BBG terminal
at the beginning of the TAF period. Additional showers and
storms across northwest MO will move southeast this evening and
may track close to the TAF sites between 03-09Z tonight, but
confidence in them impacting the forecast terminals was too low
to include in the current TAFs (less than 30% chance).

Overnight into Saturday morning, lower clouds look to develop 
across eastern Missouri, bringing MVFR and IFR ceilings. The SGF
and BBG terminals look to be near the western edge of where
these lower ceilings develop. 

Afternoon mixing will allow for the development of gusts up to
20 kt after 17Z. Winds will be out of the northwest through the
forecast period. 

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Didio