FXUS63 KTOP 021137 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 637 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms move across the area throughout the day today. - Dry and sunny weather is forecast this weekend into early next week. - Rain chances (30-60%) return by Tuesday and linger through much of the remainder of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 Early morning water vapor imagery shows broad upper troughing across the Plains and Midwest, with a shortwave trough in SD/NE. Showers just ahead of the trough axis extend from the SD/NE border southwestward into western KS. Current expectations are for the showers in western KS to slowly make their way east across our area later this morning, followed by additional activity this afternoon coming out of eastern NE as the main trough axis brings the stronger upper lift through the area. CAMs continue to indicate spotty coverage throughout the day, so have maintained 20-30% PoPs until early evening when the trough moves east of the area. Little instability looks to be present, with a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE providing just enough for a stray rumble of thunder during the afternoon. Modest CAA will result in high temperatures being slightly cooler today in the 60s. Behind the departing trough, subsidence and clearing skies should allow for good radiational cooling, bringing chilly temperatures to start Saturday morning in the upper 30s to low 40s. From there, the trough to our east develops into a cut-off low over the Mississippi River Valley while an amplified upper ridge sets up over the Rockies. This will keep northwest flow aloft in eastern KS and keep temperatures relatively cool in the mid 60s, while central KS locations look to warm up to near 70. Heading into Sunday, the upper ridge axis pushes into the central CONUS while another trough out west deepens into another cut-off low over the Desert Southwest. The increasing mid-level heights over us will allow temperatures to warm up into the 70s for Sunday and Monday with dry and pleasant weather taking hold in the region. By Tuesday, the upstream upper low becomes more expansive across the western CONUS. There are still slight variations between models on how much it expands and how soon energy from that system can enter our area, but generally PoPs increase west to east throughout Tuesday. Despite the model differences, there has been enough agreement on timing to increase PoPs to around 60% Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Chance PoPs linger through Friday of next week as the large system progresses quite slowly. The likelihood of severe weather appears low at this time with low instability, but plenty of time remains for continued monitoring. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 637 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 Light rain is moving across eastern KS and should exit terminals by mid to late morning. Additional scattered showers look to move from north to south out of eastern NE this afternoon. Have gone with VCSH for now, as they may or may not directly move over terminals. In between rounds of rain, NW winds increase slightly this afternoon sustained around 12 kts. Once the spotty showers move out, skies clear and winds become light through the night. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Picha AVIATION...Picha