FXUS63 KUNR 022214
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
414 PM MDT Fri May 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry through the weekend

- Active weather moves in early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Friday)
Issued at 203 PM MDT Fri May 2 2025

Current upper air analysis shows strong upper ridge over the
western CONUS, while departing upper low and trough sits just east
of the Dakotas. Surface charts depict high pressure dominating the
Dakotas this afternoon. Satellite shows Cu development over much
of the western SD plains, while radar has some light returns over
south central SD from our exiting system. 

Warming temperatures move in over the weekend as the upper ridge
slides east over the Rockies and into the northern/central plains.
Ensemble guidance shows temperatures 10-20 degrees above normal
for Saturday and Sunday. Breezy southeasterly flow on Sunday may
bring some elevated fire conditions, however critical is not
expected given the eastern component. Attention then turns to our
next chances for precipitation early next week. By Monday, upper
ridge breaks down as split troughing sets up. SW CONUS low will
slowly slide into the four corners region. Better chance for
meaningful precipitation will be early next week, though as upper
low lingers through Thursday, near daily chances for precipitation
will be possible. Lightly cooler temperatures early next week
(though near seasonal) will rebound again back into the 70s and
80s later in the week. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued At 414 PM MDT Fri May 2 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye
AVIATION...Wong