FXUS64 KAMA 021120 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 620 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 233 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 - There is the potential for widespread heavy rainfall for the Panhandles early next week, which may result in flooding and flash flooding. && .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 233 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 A few showers and general thunderstorms may be present through sunrise today. After that conditions should dry out behind a cold front that is expected to move through the area. Breezy northerly winds are expected in the 15 to 20 mph range through early this afternoon before dying overnight. Expecting persistent cloud cover today with afternoon highs 5 to 10 degrees below average, in the 60s. Later today clouds will begin to clear out, especially into the overnight hours. With calm winds expected overnight there will be a potential for frost in the OK Panhandle and far northern TX Panhandle. The NBM 10th percentile has some areas like Texas County and surrounding areas, to include down into Dalhart actually dropping to below freezing. The NBM has this area getting as cold as 35. Will have to watch and see where the dewpoints stand tonight as they could be sitting around 33 degrees not allowing temperatures to drop much further, except for maybe the far northwestern FA. Saturday, temperatures should warm back to near normal in the 70s as winds return to the south to southwest around 10 to 15 mph. Under slight ridging aloft and warmer air moving back into the area the combined Panhandles, even the northwest, should only see lows in the 40s going into Sunday morning. 36 && .LONG TERM ... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 233 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 Near to below average daytime temperatures are expected to persist through the extended period. Not only that but the pattern will favor several shots at precipitation with a slow moving upper level low pressure system. PWAT values are progged to be 100 to 200 percent of normal. This coming week does not look like a severe weather set up. However, there may be periods where some over achieving updrafts could potentially produce at least quarter size hail. This will be primarily later in the week towards Thursday and be primarily the far southern TX Panhandle. Otherwise the main potential threat in the long term will be flooding if multiple rounds of precip do plan out for some. Mainly dry conditions last through Sunday with activity potentially picking up Sunday evening into Monday morning. Monday looks to have the best jet dynamics present for plenty of forcing for aloft. This will be the main day for potential heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding. The days to follow will pose flooding risk with grounds potentially saturated from Monday's activity. Although PoPs are spread out throughout the long term, there may still very well be breaks in the activity. Still too far out to know the details. Tue and Wed may be afternoon storms depending on convective temperatures or the timing of potential perturbations and PVA to help lift some of that moisture expected to be present. 36 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 611 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 VFR conditions expected for most areas to start the 12Z TAF period for all TAF sites. The only exception through about 13-14Z will be a passing TS from the SW approaching KAMA. VFR conditions past 15Z to the end of the TAF period for all sites are expected. Winds will be out of the north and northeast at 5 to 15 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 65 41 73 46 / 20 0 0 0 Beaver OK 70 36 76 44 / 10 0 0 0 Boise City OK 65 36 76 43 / 10 0 0 0 Borger TX 70 42 77 47 / 10 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 67 41 76 46 / 20 0 0 0 Canyon TX 65 40 73 43 / 20 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 66 42 70 45 / 30 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 65 36 74 42 / 20 0 0 0 Guymon OK 68 35 76 43 / 10 0 0 0 Hereford TX 65 39 73 43 / 10 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 68 39 73 46 / 10 0 0 0 Pampa TX 66 40 72 46 / 20 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 68 42 71 44 / 40 0 0 0 Wellington TX 68 42 70 44 / 40 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...36 LONG TERM....36 AVIATION...29