FXUS64 KBMX 022355 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 655 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 647 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025 - Severe weather remains possible through 9 PM. Threats include damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to quarter size. - There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms on Saturday for much of Central Alabama. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 647 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025 Made some adjustments to the timing and the temperatures to account for the cold pooling behind the line of showers and storms. Still have the potential for severe storms through 11 PM, with rain and storms continuing through 1 to 3 AM. The overall strength of the activity will be on the downward trend over the next few hours. 16 Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 1202 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025 Tonight, the instabilities will decrease after sunset, with the threat of severe slowly decreasing through the evening and early night. There is still enough forcing from a departing shortwave, combined with weak instabilities for showers and thunderstorms to continue through the night and early morning. Though these should be sub severe, there could be strong storms with strong winds, frequent lightning, heavy rain, and small hail. Saturday, the front should slowly move to the southeast and drape over the state by the afternoon. Models have been atrocious at timing and coverage of the storms with this system, so confidence is low. Will advertise scattered to widespread thunderstorms through the late morning and afternoon on Saturday, with a few possibly becoming severe. Instabilities won't be quite as high as Friday afternoon, with values around 1500 J/kg, though with a stronger mid level jet, the wind profile will be slightly stronger. There is a low chance for storms to produce damaging winds up to 60 mph and large hail. There could very likely be breaks between storms, but models are not handling any boundaries with enough consistency to allow a higher confidence on when those breaks would be. If there is enough of a break in the late morning and early afternoon, the instabilities may be slightly higher for the activity in the afternoon, though we will assess as the system continues to evolve. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 221 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025 After the activity works out of the area Saturday night, an upper low will swing to our north. Right now clouds look to be the main weather feature on Sunday, but a few light showers may develop across far northern counties. Right now chances remain low of getting at least a hundredth of an inch so will go with a cloudy but dry forecast for now. As some of the CAMs come in tonight and Saturday, we could see the trend increase for the light rain on Sunday and Monday. Forecast models continue to suggest batches of showers and storms may affect our area mid to late next week, with shortwaves coming off an upstream trough and westerly flow aloft. 16 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 647 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025 Line of showers and storms moving across all sites but MGM at this time. MGM should see activity by 9 to 10 pm. Ceilings will drop to MVFR through the night and could flirt with IFR for a few hours right at sunrise. Additional thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon on Saturday. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Moderate to high chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through late Saturday evening as a cold front approaches the region. Increasing moisture ahead of the boundary will keep min RHs around 40-60% today and 60-70% on Saturday. Drier conditions will move into the area on Sunday with RHs falling into the 35-45% range at times. However, light winds will help negate fire weather concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 59 71 50 72 / 90 90 30 10 Anniston 61 72 52 73 / 90 90 40 0 Birmingham 60 71 52 71 / 90 90 20 0 Tuscaloosa 61 72 52 74 / 90 90 10 0 Calera 61 71 54 73 / 90 90 30 0 Auburn 62 72 57 75 / 60 90 70 0 Montgomery 63 75 56 75 / 80 90 40 0 Troy 62 74 57 76 / 50 90 60 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...16