FXUS64 KCRP 021657 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1157 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 617 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded all of South Texas to a Slight (Level 2 out of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms today and overnight. Damaging wind with a probability of 15% and hail with a probability of 5-15% are the main threats. The tornado threat looks less likely but can't be completely ruled out. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 Key Messages: - Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms today and tonight across South Texas - Moderate Risk for Rip Currents Today and Tonight Not much change to the short term forecast other than slight adjustments to PoPs. A cold front moving southward across the region will get uplift support from a 500 mb shortwave trough and a subtropical jet, setting the stage for some thunderstorms to become severe. The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of South Texas under a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms with northern counties up against a Slight risk. Sfc based CAPE > 2000 J/kg and bulk shear 40-50 knots will help support strong to severe storms capable of producing damaging winds and large hail. Also can't rule out an isolated tornado. A Marginal risk will linger across extreme southern counties of our CWA Saturday. In addition, strong or severe storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall. Therefore, the Weather Prediction Center has placed our northern counties under a Slight Risk for Excessive rainfall with a Marginal Risk across the remainder of the CWA excluding the southern Coastal Bend. Please make sure you have multiple ways to receive warnings. There is a moderate to high (50-75%) chance for showers across the region tonight. Forecasted rainfall totals today through Sunday remain largely unchanged from 0.25 north east to around 2 inches west. Afternoon temperatures today will range from the low 80s along the immediate coast, mid 80s east to mid 90s west. Tomorrow expect low to mid 80s. Overnight lows tonight will hover around the mid 60s to low 70s region-wide. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 Key Messages: - Daily widespread shower/thunderstorms Monday PM thru Thursday Several mid disturbances will combine with several boundaries/cold fronts early next week and next weekend. Model guidance shows the boundaries lingering around the region combined with weak ridging early in the week so expect daily rain chances on the low end (20-30%) most days. The best chance for showers/thunderstorms will be Moderate (~40-60%) Tuesday and Wednesday across the northeastern counties as the aforementioned boundaries make there way across the region. To kick of the upcoming week, highs in the 80s each day across the region will give way to 90s returning to portions of the Coastal Plains and Brush Country starting Tuesday afternoon. Saturday and Sunday expect overnight lows in the 60s with 70s returning Monday night. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1152 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 While we currently have a mix of MVFR and VFR, conditions will improve to VFR across the area. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move into the northern Brush Country to Victoria Crossroads around 02Z-03Z. These storms could be strong to severe with large hail and strong winds expected. This could reduce visibility and low ceilings (IFR/LIFR) are expected in and around strong thunderstorms). Conditions will improve around 12Z and continue to improve to high MVFR/VFR by mid-morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) breeze today will decrease to a gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) breeze by early Saturday morning before backing northeast in response to a cold front. There is a medium to high chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight through Saturday. By Sunday night, flow veers southeasterly with 3-4 ft seas through Monday. From Monday evening, a fresh (BF 5) onshore flow develops allowing seas to increase to 5-6 ft in the open waters. Seas return to a generally moderate breeze (BF 4) becoming northeast Thursday as another front approaches the waters. Chances for showers and thunderstorms exists daily through the upcoming week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 87 70 81 65 / 10 70 30 10 Victoria 87 66 83 59 / 30 60 20 10 Laredo 96 70 81 65 / 10 80 30 20 Alice 91 68 83 63 / 10 70 30 10 Rockport 86 70 84 67 / 10 60 30 10 Cotulla 93 68 83 62 / 30 80 20 10 Kingsville 89 69 81 65 / 10 70 40 20 Navy Corpus 83 72 81 70 / 10 70 30 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BF/80 LONG TERM....BF/80 AVIATION...LS/77