FXUS64 KEPZ 040756 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 156 AM MDT Sun May 4 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm risk will continue Sunday in the Sacramento Mountains, while breezy southwest winds bring drier air into the remainder of the area. - Low precip chances continue off and on for much of the area Monday through Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 150 AM MDT Sun May 4 2025 UL low over CA will be the main player for our weather through Wednesday. It will be slow to exit the area thanks to an omega block covering the entire CONUS. For today, drier air will begin to sweep in from the west with the arrival of the H500 jet nosing into SW NM. West of this effective dry line, winds will become breezy topping out around 15 to 25 MPH. Main impacts will be critical fire weather concerns and blowing dust. I'm not confident there will be widespread visibility reductions below a mile, so I'll hold on any dust headlines. East of the boundary, moisture will be sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. GFS and Euro showing around 500 J/kg of CAPE with around 50 knots of shear. The NAM shows well over 1000 J/kg, but it is often too bullish with moisture. SPC has placed much of Otero and Hudspeth Counties in a Marginal Risk for severe storms with strong winds and marginally severe hail the concern. Timing looks to be mid to late afternoon. A few storms may also occur over the Gila but instability will be meager. By Monday the low will slowly shift across AZ. Much of its moisture will be held just to our north with low to moderate chances (15 to 30%) grazing Sierra County and our mountains. A small trough/vort max will swing south of the low across Northern Baja and Sonora before absorbing into the parent low late Monday into early Tuesday, crossing southern NM. Guidance has increased QPF related to this feature with the GFS, Euro, and NAM Nest developing precip with this feature. We return to the dry slot by Tuesday morning once this feature completely gets absorbed into the parent low. With us remaining on the south side of the low, the northern half of the CONUS will feature precip chances likely in the form of a few instability showers or weak thunderstorms. On Wednesday, the main low will have shifted into the Southern Plains with another lobe of energy dropping south on its back side. This feature will sweep through Central NM while weakening keeping precip chances in the picture for mainly the northern half of the CWA. Finally by Thursday ridging will take the low's place. Beneath the UL ridge, surface flow will turn southeasterly sometime Thursday evening or night allowing a slow increase in moisture. Thunderstorm chances will return to the forecast by late Friday or Saturday as a result. That forecast is quicker in the GFS as a weak low cuts through the ridge. Temperatures will be below normal through Wednesday as the low hangs around. We warm back up near normal for Thursday with Friday expected to be the warmest day of the period, just above normal. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1116 PM MDT Sat May 3 2025 VFR conditions expected through the period with skies FEW-SCT 10-15 kft through the overnight, becoming FEW-SCT at 20-25 kft through the morning. Winds remain breezy through the early overnight hours, becoming light at 5-10 knots during the morning. Winds will increase during the late morning and afternoon hours at 10-15 knots with gusts to 25-30 knots. Winds along and west of the RGV will range from 180-220 in direction and 180-150 for areas to the east. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 150 AM MDT Sun May 4 2025 Dry air will push into southwest and south-central parts of New Mexico this afternoon leading to single-digit min RH values across much of the lowlands. The jet stream will nose over the Bootheel, bringing up winds across the Southwest Desert lowlands, Black Range, and portions of Sierra County. 20-foot winds look to top out between 20 and 25 MPH. These winds combining with the dry conditions will lead to a few hours of critical fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for NM Zone 111. This will be the end of significant fire weather concerns for the forecast period. For areas remaining within the moisture, isolated thunderstorms are forecast in the afternoon, mainly for the Sacramento Mountains and Hudspeth County although enough moisture may linger for a shower or weak thunderstorm in the Gila as well. The UL low will be slow to clear the area. Cooler temperatures and some modest gains in moisture will lead to higher min RH values on Monday with mid teens and lower 20s. Winds will top out around 10 MPH. Rain and thunderstorm chances will continue across mainly the mountains with an uptick late Monday into early Tuesday for the lowlands. The cooler temperatures and moisture sticks around though Wednesday before drier and warmer air returns by Thursday. This will keep low precip chances in the forecast through Wednesday. Winds will top out between 10 and 15 MPH each afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 86 55 75 52 / 10 10 10 40 Sierra Blanca 81 47 75 47 / 20 20 0 30 Las Cruces 80 46 70 42 / 10 10 10 30 Alamogordo 79 47 71 44 / 50 60 10 40 Cloudcroft 56 31 49 29 / 60 70 10 40 Truth or Consequences 78 47 70 46 / 20 30 20 30 Silver City 69 37 61 37 / 20 20 20 20 Deming 81 44 72 44 / 10 10 20 20 Lordsburg 76 39 68 42 / 20 20 10 20 West El Paso Metro 82 54 72 51 / 0 10 10 40 Dell City 82 48 77 47 / 50 40 0 30 Fort Hancock 89 49 82 50 / 20 10 0 30 Loma Linda 76 49 68 45 / 20 20 0 30 Fabens 86 52 77 50 / 10 10 10 30 Santa Teresa 81 49 70 46 / 0 10 10 30 White Sands HQ 81 53 72 50 / 30 20 10 40 Jornada Range 79 45 70 42 / 30 20 10 30 Hatch 82 47 72 45 / 10 20 20 30 Columbus 82 49 73 48 / 0 10 10 20 Orogrande 79 47 70 46 / 30 40 10 40 Mayhill 65 37 62 34 / 60 70 10 50 Mescalero 66 36 60 33 / 50 70 10 40 Timberon 64 33 58 31 / 60 60 10 40 Winston 69 31 61 31 / 20 20 20 20 Hillsboro 76 40 67 39 / 20 20 20 20 Spaceport 78 43 69 41 / 20 20 10 30 Lake Roberts 71 34 62 34 / 20 20 30 20 Hurley 73 36 65 37 / 10 20 10 20 Cliff 76 38 68 37 / 20 30 20 10 Mule Creek 71 37 63 37 / 30 30 20 20 Faywood 73 39 64 40 / 10 20 10 20 Animas 76 40 69 42 / 20 10 10 10 Hachita 77 41 69 42 / 10 10 10 20 Antelope Wells 76 42 69 41 / 0 10 10 10 Cloverdale 69 41 62 40 / 0 0 10 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ. && $$ FORECASTER...34-Brown