FXUS64 KEWX 021135 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 635 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 331 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 Key Messages: - A cold front brings a near widespread severe weather and heavy rain threat today into tonight. - Level 2 to 3 of 5 severe risk for all areas with large hail and damaging winds the main threats, with an isolated tornado threat. A nod of appreciation goes out to the American model, or GFS, that never wavered on Thursday's Rio Grande complex forming and moving east to the south side of San Antonio metro before weakening. Yesterday's 00Z run was also in close proximity on the development of severe storms in Burnet county. This is good to great performance in the month of May when outflow boundaries and MCV features can seemingly pop up out of nowhere. It also gives me reason to keeping a bit slower on frontal timing than the ECM/CMC runs that accelerated the front through our high population regions by 21Z. Today's GFS and NAM look similar in frontal timing and placement of strongest convection, and I'll be content to stick with these solutions as a basis for messaging while the gridded data tells a less cohesive story on storm timing. As the front and stronger storm activity is expected to max out out peak heating of the day, CAPEs to 4000 J/Kg and plenty of shear. The frontal push south is still respectable for early May standards, and this surge of air could bring us more damaging wind reports than we would see on a typical severe weather day in May. The strongest activity should wane between midnight and 2 AM which is a slower projection than is suggested by the ECM/CMC. The faster motion unfortunately will impact a large amount of outdoor activities going on in the community, so the afternoon and evening staff here will have their hands full with area planners. As we've seen the past two days, locally heavy downpours as much as 3 inches are possible if two storms train over the same area. We suspect there will be a lot more 2 to 3 inch areas for today/tonight, and we still expect about an inch of rain for well over half the area. As usual and especially when in drought, someone's going to get left behind, and there looks to be at least a 20 percent of our area that could see less than 1/4 inch. Looking at the QPFs from several models, it does look like the I-35 corridor and Hill Country areas will get their share, and some of the lower totals might be found west of DRT and over the Coastal Plains counties near VCT. By dusk, the heaviest activity should be past the high population areas, but a heavy rain and lightning threat will continue probably through midnight. The slightly faster trend of frontal timing (that is faster than was projected from a couple days ago) means some of the higher rain chances of the weekend will shrink, leaving the weekend to potentially be a dry and pleasant one with the cooler temperatures. Those wishing to hike in the Hill Country might enjoy high temps in the low to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 331 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 Key messages: - Fair weather on Sunday - Rounds of showers and thunderstorms next week High pressure ridges at the surface and aloft bring fair skies and slightly below average temperatures for Sunday. However, this dry spell will be brief. The ridges move off to the east on Monday allowing moisture to return to our area from a southerly lower level flow off the Gulf of America and a southwesterly flow aloft from the Pacific Ocean. An upper level low drifts from near the Four Corners region on Monday to the Central States on Wednesday and Thursday. Mid level impulses moving through the flow aloft and heating each day, as well as, a dryline on Tuesday and a frontal passage on Wednesday or Thursday will generate rounds of showers and thunderstorms much of next week. Due to uncertainty on timing and strength of the impulses, surface features, and moisture depth have favored the blended guidances. There is a potential for strong to severe storms and heavy rains, at times, based on convective parameters such as CAPE, mid level lapse rates, deep layer shear, and PWs, however, much uncertainty on the specifics is noted for each day. Currently, the best chances are on Tuesday. Temperatures should be within a few degrees of average for early May. Later forecasts will fine tune the forecast over the next several days. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 The first few hours of today will be more of a SCT V BKN trend as strong storm outflows brought cool and drier air and some shifty, mainly east winds. This should trend toward a SE or SSE wind later this morning, and that should allow for a few more MVFR CIGs to show up. The there could be a VFR stratus deck ahead of the front, but the ceilings may still be stuck at MVFR based on any timing changes and streamer showers that could form over the I-35 terminals. The slower NAM/GFS timing is preferred, so we'll allow for a period of VFR before the front brings strong storms and potential heavy rainfall we kept the stormy period with a VFR CIG since there should be strong downdrafts from front driven storms. Once the downdrafts weaken, there could be a drop to IFR as precip continues and low levels get close to saturation along I-35. Less cloud lowering is shown for DRT as that area may not see as much heavy rain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 85 63 80 56 / 80 70 10 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 85 62 79 52 / 80 70 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 88 64 81 55 / 60 70 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 81 59 78 52 / 80 60 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 89 67 80 63 / 40 50 20 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 84 61 77 52 / 80 60 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 88 65 82 56 / 50 70 10 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 87 62 81 53 / 70 70 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 87 64 79 54 / 70 70 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 87 65 81 58 / 60 70 10 10 Stinson Muni Airport 90 66 82 58 / 50 70 10 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...18 Long-Term...04 Aviation...18