FXUS64 KFWD 212345 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 645 PM CDT Wed May 21 2025 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Storm chances return to North Texas on Thursday. Some storms could become severe with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. - Following seasonably hot and humid days on Friday and Saturday, more widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected along a cold front from Sunday afternoon into Monday. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /This Evening through Friday Morning/ The stationary front will begin to advance northward as a warm front overnight in response to an upper-level shortwave digging to our northeast. Increased moisture in the form of 60-70 degree dewpoints will overspread the region behind this warm front over the early parts of the day tomorrow, culminating in a sharpening dryline to our west. By Thursday afternoon the warm front should be located near the Red River, placing all of North and Central Texas within the warm sector of the system. A mid-level shortwave will transit across the Southern Plains tomorrow, overspreading lift overtop North and Central Texas. Showers and storms will begin to develop along the Red River, with most likely timing around 3 PM, but could initialize as early as 1 PM. Additionally, dryline convection will occur to our west and move east towards the Big Country. The environment within the warm sector will feature 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE, mid- level lapse rates ~ 8 C/km, and deep layer shear around 45-50 kt, which is more than capable of producing strong to severe storms with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. With a somewhat more orthogonal deep layer wind vector, initial storms will be discrete before congealing into clusters later in the evening, which would pose a primary threat of damaging winds. The overall tornado threat is low as 0-1 SRH and shear are meager, but we cannot rule one out with any of the initial discrete cells. Over the late evening, clusters of storms will continue to move south across our west and southwestern counties. The majority of activity will likely dissipate close to midnight, but there will be a low chance that storms persist in our southwest through the overnight hours into early Friday morning. Prater && .LONG TERM... /Issued 200 PM CDT Wed May 21 2025/ /Thursday Evening Onward/ Convection will be ongoing at the start of the long-term period Thursday evening. As mentioned in the short-term discussion above, upscale growth into a cluster (or two) of storms will likely occur either during the afternoon or sometime in the evening. Once upscale growth occurs, the main severe weather hazard will transition to damaging winds, though isolated instances of large hail will remain possible in any stronger cores that develop or in any discrete storms. The cluster(s) of storms will continue moving south into the overnight period, with most of this activity ending by midnight Thursday night. However, there is a low chance a few storms will linger after midnight. Once these storms come to an end, rain-free weather will be upon us once again as we close out another work week and head into the first half of Memorial Day weekend. Friday and Saturday will be warm and humid with highs in the 80s to mid 90s and morning lows in the low to mid 70s Saturday morning. The dryline may become active across West Texas Saturday evening, but a mid-level ridge should keep this activity well to our west. On Sunday, scattered storms will likely develop during the afternoon as a dryline sharpens to our west and a compact shortwave trough approaches the region. Coverage of showers and storms will increase Sunday evening into Monday as a surface low ejects into West Texas. The surface low will drag a cold front through the region on Monday, bringing additional chances for showers and storms. Marginal instability and deep layer shear will keep the threat for organized severe storms low both Sunday and Monday; however, there will be enough instability to support isolated severe hail and damaging wind gusts with any stronger storms that are able to develop. The front will likely stall somewhere near our southern border Monday night and will serve as a focus for additional rounds of storms on a daily basis through the middle of next week as a series of shortwaves move overhead. The severe weather threat is uncertain at this time given this is ~5-7 days out. Fortunately, below-normal temperatures are expected for several days behind the front with afternoon highs in the 70s and 80s. Barnes && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ South to southeasterly winds will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24-30 hours. A warm front will move across the airports overnight into Thursday, aiding in increased cloud cover. A deck of MVFR stratus will move northward across portions of our Central and North Texas counties, with lowered cigs reaching ACT at 11Z and D10 around 12Z. ACT is more likely to be impacted by IFR cigs between 11-14Z. The clouds will scatter out and lift over the morning, with VFR expected to prevail at 16Z. Scattered showers and storms will form along the Red River over the afternoon and advance south. Greatest impacts are expected at D10 between 23-02Z tomorrow afternoon. Some of these storms could become strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds, but the tornado threat is on the low end. The storms should exit D10 closer to 03Z, making their way into Central Texas. Winds in D10 will shift more easterly tomorrow afternoon and evening (outside of any gusty, erratic thunderstorm winds) under the influence of a nearby surface boundary, with a potential for NE winds after 03Z. This timing of any NE wind shift remains uncertain, and depends on where the boundary moves. Prater && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 68 91 68 88 74 / 0 50 50 5 0 Waco 68 93 69 91 73 / 0 10 40 5 0 Paris 60 83 63 83 70 / 0 50 20 10 5 Denton 63 91 62 87 70 / 0 50 50 10 5 McKinney 63 88 64 86 72 / 0 50 50 5 5 Dallas 68 91 68 88 73 / 0 50 50 5 0 Terrell 63 89 66 88 72 / 0 40 50 5 0 Corsicana 67 92 70 91 73 / 0 10 30 5 0 Temple 68 95 69 93 73 / 0 5 40 0 0 Mineral Wells 65 95 65 90 71 / 0 50 50 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$