FXUS64 KFWD 081110 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 610 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .KEY MESSAGES... - A significant damaging wind event is likely Sunday evening and Sunday night across North Texas as a complex of storms races through the region. Widespread severe weather is expected. - Hot and humid conditions are expected again today with heat index values up to 105 F this afternoon. - Periodic storm chances will continue through the upcoming week with near or below normal temperatures. Severe storms will be possible Wednesday into Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: Recent high-resolution model guidance continues to show that a significant damaging wind event is likely to occur tonight across most of North Texas and portions of Central Texas. While the southward surging cold front will be the main focus for convective development later this afternoon, a few CAMs have shown the potential for earlier development further along the dryline in the western Texas Panhandle, tracking southeast into the Big Country through the afternoon. However, this activity (should it develop) is not expected to significantly impact the environment ahead of the later arriving thunderstorm complex. Minimal changes were made to the current forecast based on the latest observations and short term guidance. See the previous forecast discussions for details on tonight's widespread severe storms. 12 Previous Discussion: /Today and Tonight/ Though there was little in the way of upper level support for convection this afternoon, a few isolated thunderstorms finally managed to develop along a weak low-level confluence boundary just north of the Red River this evening. The net result in our CWA was a lone supercell slowly moving across our far northeastern counties briefly producing severe hail (~1 inch in diameter) southeast of Sherman in Grayson county. The latest CAM guidance shows the remnants of this storm exiting to the east in the next few hours. A potentially significant convective event is expected to unfold across a large portion of North and Central Texas beginning late Sunday evening and continuing into early Monday morning. This will be the result of a highly unstable thermodynamic environment with increasingly favorable synoptic and mesoscale forcing. The forecast remains on track for widespread damaging wind potential, with a secondary threat for large hail and a couple of brief tornadoes, particularly early in the evolution. The upper-level pattern will feature a broad trough axis extending from the Northern Rockies through the Central Plains and into the Midwest later this morning. Embedded within this trough, a compact mid-level shortwave will eject from the Central Plains into western Oklahoma, acting as the primary driver for convective initiation later this afternoon. At the surface, a cold front currently analyzed across the Central Plains will continue pressing southeastward, entering the TX/OK panhandles by midday. Ahead of this boundary, deep southerly flow will maintain a moist thermodynamic profile across our area, characterized by dewpoints in the mid 70s and surface temperatures pushing the mid 90s at peak heating. Not only will this yield triple digit heat index values, but also strong instability with forecast soundings and CAM-derived MLCAPE values in the 2500-4000 J/kg range, with the better instability focused across the Red River Valley and the Texas Panhandle. Initial discrete supercell development is expected between 2-4 PM well northwest of our CWA, across southwestern Kansas and northwestern Oklahoma. As these storms propagate southeastward and grow upscale into a forward-propagating mesoscale convective system, an increasingly organized damaging wind threat will emerge. Several CAMs, including the recent HRRR and RRFS runs, indicate a strong cold pool will accompany this system, enhancing propagation speed and allowing it to accelerate into North Texas later this evening. The timing of the greatest impact appears most likely between 7 PM Sunday and 1 AM Monday for all of North Texas including the DFW Metroplex, and portions of Central Texas. Wind gusts in this timeframe could easily exceed 70 mph, with localized potential for gusts of 80+ mph, particularly where embedded bowing segments develop within the MCS. The potential also exists for embedded QLCS tornadoes, especially north of the I-20 corridor where modest low-level shear and SRH values could support tornadic circulations along the leading edge of the MCS. Farther south, into Central Texas, storm intensity may weaken as the system outruns the strongest upper-level support and encounters increasing stability. However, damaging wind gusts of 50-70 mph may still accompany the line into these areas including Waco, Temple, and Hearne between 12-3 AM Monday. Sub-severe storms may continue in the wake of the MCS through the pre-dawn hours before completely diminishing by sunrise Monday. 12 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 336 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025/ /Next Week and Weekend/ With North and Central Texas situated between a large upper trough over Ontario and the Great Lakes and the building ridge over the western CONUS, the weather pattern will remain unsettled through most of the extended forecast period as northwest flow aloft persists through at least midweek. At the surface, the cold front associated with the storm complex arriving during the short term period will stall over Central Texas providing a focus for early week convective development while a series of upper level disturbances move through the flow. Large scale forcing for ascent will increase notably Wednesday into Thursday as a slow moving closed upper low/trough migrates across the Plains. Though wind shear will be more modest, we cannot rule out the potential for a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms. Additionally, this rainfall may lead to flash/urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding, especially given the wet antecedent conditions. We may FINALLY get a reprieve from the daily rain chances next weekend as the amplifying upper ridge over the Desert Southwest builds eastward into the Plains. 12 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12z TAFs/ VFR prevails with south winds around 10 kts. The latest high- resolution model guidance continues to show a large complex of severe thunderstorms impacting area airports after 03Z, with the potential for damaging wind gusts and hail. A NW wind shift will accompany the line of storms. Additional convection is possible mid to late Monday morning in the wake of the departing complex along the cold front settling southwest of the D10 airports. 12 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 94 70 85 70 87 / 10 80 40 50 30 Waco 94 70 87 71 85 / 0 40 30 50 50 Paris 89 67 84 67 85 / 20 80 30 10 20 Denton 94 67 84 67 87 / 10 80 40 40 30 McKinney 92 70 84 68 86 / 10 80 40 30 30 Dallas 96 70 86 71 87 / 10 80 40 50 40 Terrell 93 70 86 69 86 / 10 80 40 40 40 Corsicana 95 72 87 72 87 / 5 60 40 50 50 Temple 96 72 92 72 89 / 0 20 20 40 50 Mineral Wells 96 68 84 67 86 / 10 80 40 60 40 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$