FXUS64 KHGX 171953 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 253 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday Night) Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Shra/tstm activity beginning to fire to our wnw in association with daytime heating dryline, and weak impulses tracking along the northern periphery of the ridge. Latest CAM trends generally keep this precip to the north of our CWA this evening, though there was some some intermittent earlier runs that showed the potential for a few cells to sneak across portions of the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods...kind of in line with the 12z GFS/ECMWF depiction of things. Have maintained 20-40% POPS in those general areas until we have enough confidence to eventually remove them. Cannot rule out an isolated strong cell or two should they materialize. Otherwise, a forecast of persistence looks tough to beat with late night and morning cloudiness scattering out during the afternoon hours. Lows in the 70s and highs in the 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Broad mid and upper ridging extending across Mexico and across the Gulf will maintain the status quo wx into early next week. A trof will pass thru the Plains on Tuesday. It's associated weak surface boundary/front should slide into northern parts of the region during the day Tue and, if subsidence can be overcome, at least provide somewhat of a focusing mechanism for some isolated shra/tsra. Not everyone will see rain...most probably won't...but at least chances are non-zero. Some drier air will filter in behind this "front" as it eventually puts on the brakes somewhere near the coast Wed. Most noticeable thing will be lower RH's and slightly cooler temps at night behind it. Surface high pressure slides off to the east and onshore winds will again bring higher dewpoints back into the area during the second parts of the week, along with the re-establishment of mid-upper ridging. So other than some slightly drier air midweek, summerlike conditions should mostly prevail next week. We can hope the ECMWF is on to something with some diurnally driven precip chances Thurs & Fri, but it is currently more of an outlier of guidance that goes out that far. 47 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Generally a fcst of persistence with overnight and morning MVFR stratus, followed by lifting ceilings as we head into the late morning and afternoon hours. We'll need to keep an eye on our northern terminals late in the day/evening as some highres guidances suggests the potential for some iso-sct tstms in the area in the 22-03z timeframe. Also showing the brief potential for iso activity for the metro terminals in the early afternoon. Run- to-run consistency has been somewhat poor, however, so opted not to mention at this time. Will monitor trends and amend as necessary. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds (south-southeast) will prevail this weekend. Winds will become moderate to strong late Sunday into early Tuesday in response of a tight pressure gradient across the region. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution (OR Caution flags) conditions may be needed at times. Winds and seas may reach advisory levels Monday - early Tuesday time frame. Offshore winds are briefly expected late Tuesday into Wednesday as a weak cold front moves through. Onshore winds resume on Wednesday. Little to no rain is anticipated through the period. Swimming Conditions: The risk of rip currents continues along all Gulf-facing beaches and will likely persist into the upcoming week. JM && .CLIMATE... Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 With multiple days of near-record to record-breaking heat possible going into early next week, here's a look at the daily high temperature records through Tuesday (May 20th). May 17th High Temperature Records --------------------------------- - College Station: 96F (1925) - Houston/IAH: 96F (2018) - Houston/Hobby: 94F (2018) - Palacios: 93F (2003) - Galveston: 90F (2020) May 18th High Temperature Records --------------------------------- - College Station: 98F (2022) - Houston/IAH: 95F (2022) - Houston/Hobby: 94F (2022) - Palacios: 89F (2022) - Galveston: 90F (2022) May 19th High Temperature Records --------------------------------- - College Station: 94F (2022) - Houston/IAH: 95F (2003) - Houston/Hobby: 94F (2008) - Palacios: 89F (2024) - Galveston: 90F (2022) May 20th High Temperature Records --------------------------------- - College Station: 96F (2022) - Houston/IAH: 95F (2020) - Houston/Hobby: 95F (2008) - Palacios: 95F (1943) - Galveston: 91F (2022) Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 76 94 75 94 / 30 10 0 10 Houston (IAH) 78 93 77 92 / 10 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 79 85 78 85 / 10 10 10 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ436>439. GM...None. && $$