FXUS64 KJAN 021442 AAB AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 942 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 941 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 Rest of Today...A quiet start to the day will end with widespread showers and thunderstorms affecting much of the forecast area this afternoon and evening. Yet another, stronger, wave will move across the region later today. Sufficient instability (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE), steep mid-level lapse rates (6.8-7.2 C/km @ 700-500mb & vertical totals around 30), and 25-35 knots of deep-layer wind shear, will again yield the potential for a complex of severe storms propagating through the CWA, with some isolated to scattered storms possible ahead of it. Due to this increased confidence in severe storms and their being more widespread, an "Enhanced Risk" of severe storms now resides across much of the forecast area, with a "Slight Risk" of severe storms across portions of East Central and Southeast Mississippi. In the "Enhanced Risk" area, damaging wind gusts to 70 mph will be the primary concern with storms, along with hail to the size of golf balls. Then in the "Slight Risk" area, damaging wind gusts to 60 mph and hail to the size of half dollars will be possible. In addition, frequent lighting is likely and heavy downpours resulting in the ponding of water on roads and in low-lying areas is possible. While some isolated to scattered activity will be possible across the forecast area ahead of this next disturbance, currently the best timing for severe convection is between 1 PM and midnight tonight. Otherwise, expected increasing clouds as convection develops this afternoon, with highs climbing into the low and middle 80s. The ongoing forecast is in pretty good shape. Other than the usual adjustments in hourly elements of the forecast, no major changes will be made on this morning's update. /19/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 441 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 Another chance for severe weather is expected today as a potent shortwave moves across the region. Showers and storms are likely this afternoon through this evening as enhanced deep-layer shear, SBCAPE, and steep mid-lvl lapse rate increase the severe weather potential. Majority of CWA was upgraded to an "Enhanced" risk by SPC, where as SE MS remains under a "Slight" risk for severe weather. Damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and hail (up to quarter- size) are the hazards of concern. Rain chances will continue Saturday ahead of a slow-moving cold front. Once the front moves through, diminishing rain chances is expected by Saturday afternoon with lingering showers possible near SE MS in the evening. High pressure will begin to filter into the MS Valley Sunday into the beginning of next week. Quiet conditions along with seasonal average temps are expected through Tuesday. Following the high pressure, a blocking pattern with lows centered near the Rocky Mts/Ohio Valley will bring rain chances back to the area as a few disturbances move across the southeast through the extended period. /SW/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 659 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 SHRA and TSRA are expected to develop after 18Z, with greatest chances for impacts between about 20Z today through 02Z Saturday. Increasing chances for MVFR ceilings after rain ends - by around 06Z Saturday. /NF/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 87 64 75 53 / 60 70 70 10 Meridian 86 63 76 52 / 70 70 90 30 Vicksburg 86 64 76 54 / 70 70 50 10 Hattiesburg 87 66 80 56 / 40 60 90 20 Natchez 85 64 76 54 / 70 70 60 10 Greenville 82 64 75 53 / 70 90 40 10 Greenwood 85 63 75 52 / 70 90 60 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 19