FXUS64 KLCH 030836 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 336 AM CDT Sat May 3 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers will continue early this morning ending by late morning. - Somewhat cooler and drier air will filter into the region today through Monday on light northerly winds. - The next significant chance of rain comes Tuesday and Wednesday as a developing low pressure area over central Texas moves across the region. Heavy rainfall will be possible with these storms and there will be a risk of flash flooding. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat May 3 2025 Guidance had been depicting something of a second round of light to moderate showers early this morning and while it presently doesn't appear nearly as widespread as was being indicated, activity presently moving into Southeast Texas seems to confirm that it was on to something. Expect this non severe activity to continue to work it's way across the area and offshore early this morning with most activity coming to an end before noon. Skies will gradually clear this afternoon in the wake of the fropa with noticeably cooler and drier air filtering in. Overnight lows tonight are forecast to fall into the low to mid 50s which is about 10 degrees below climatological normals. Similar lows expected Monday morning as well in what will likely be the last taste of temperatures in the 50s until October. A warm front will lift across the region Monday afternoon bringing an end to the cooler temperatures and an increase in dewpoints ahead of a developing low over central Texas. Jones && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat May 3 2025 Both Tuesday and Wednesday are shaping up to be very wet with a couple of shortwave induced surface lows moving across the region. Forecast PWAT values favor efficient rain makers that will pose a flash flood threat both days. WPC has raised parts of central Louisiana into a moderate risk for excessive rainfall Tuesday. The second disturbance will push another frontal boundary through the area, but this one will not be as strong or as long lived as today's. By late Friday, operational global models all attempt to park a broad upper level low over the central gulf coast which will have the potential to produce several days of unsettled weather into next weekend. Jones && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025 Generally speaking, majority of ongoing convection is moving away from terminals into the northern Gulf. There are some weak lingering storms along the boundary just south of ARA/LFT, and anvil lightning is popping off near AEX and LCH, otherwise, no impactful convection at any sites. Light rain is expected into the very early morning hours tomorrow before another round of very widely scattered and elevated storms develops in the morning. The boundary sitting right offshore and plentiful moisture still in place are expected to set off showers and storms. Not expecting anything severe or organized, just garden variety weaker storms. A dry front is expected to move through in the late morning, washing out any remaining rainfall. Winds are currently breezy and variable thanks to the ongoing convective system. A consistent northerly breeze should prevail overnight and into the morning. Winds remain from the north and increase after sunrise, helping to usher southward the cooler and drier air. Ceilings also variable in relation to the passing system. Within showers, ceilings are sitting between 500 and 1000 ft. Elsewhere they're in the MVFR range. North winds tonight should help to wash out these very low ceilings and MVFR heights are expected to prevail through the morning. Once dry air arrives in the afternoon, CIGs will swiftly lift. 11/Calhoun && .MARINE... Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat May 3 2025 Scattered showers will continue over the coastal waters this morning in the vicinity of a passing cold front. Precipitation will come to an end this afternoon. Light offshore flow will prevail this morning through Monday afternoon before turning back onshore and increasing Tuesday ahead of a developing low pressure area over central Texas Texas. Seas will also increase to 4 to 6 feet Tuesday. This low is expected to bring widespread showers and thunderstorms across the coastal waters both Tuesday and Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 79 51 77 52 / 20 0 0 0 LCH 81 56 80 58 / 30 0 0 0 LFT 80 56 79 57 / 60 0 0 0 BPT 82 57 82 60 / 30 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...66 LONG TERM....66 AVIATION...11