FXUS64 KLIX 021139 AAA AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 639 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 ...NEW AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 314 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 A bit more widespread activity expected today which could have some strong/severe storms accompany it. Heavy rainfall looks to be a very good fit for today as well. The severe wx variable with the highest probability of occurrence will be damaging winds then hail and finally tornadic. Although flooding is not a severe wx parameter, it will definitely be on the table today as storm motion vectors will be 180 with propagation vectors. This causes training to occur when disturbances move overhead and there will be no shortage of those. The next 48 hours most area should see 1 to 3 inches or rainfall, which does not normally cause any issues, but there will be a few isolated locations that will see almost double these amounts and if this comes within a short time, it could cause some flooding issues. The first main area to watch will be the disturbance moving across the western gulf this morning. This area will move into the area by noon today and help develop some sh/ts around the area. The northern half of the area will have the strongest training probs today, so any storms that develop will have a high likelihood of staying in those same areas. The next area to watch will be the main theme. This area is now getting started this morning over the Red River valley and should eventually evolve into a line of broken storm clusters that will move SE. These clusters will be capable of producing the highest prob of severe storms and heaviest rainfall as they move into the area later today. Timing is very difficult to say the least with all of this occurring at different times. But we will give it a shot. Although there will be some showers and maybe a storm around, the first area over south TX/western Gulf will start developing stronger convection around 3p today. The second main feature will start to move into the NW portion of the area around 6p today and this will simply enhance what is already here. The cold pooling will finally undercut all of this during the evening causing some stability around midnight tonight. Even though there will be a few showers lingering, this reprieve will last until 5a Sat when the main short wave will drop into the base of the H3 long wave trough enhancing lift once again. This short wave will take a while to dig the H3 trough, so the front that will be moving through along with it will take its time once it gets here. But the strong/severe portion of this should be moving out by 6p Sat. There will still be some showers lingering but even those should be out by midnight Sat night into Sun morning. (TE) && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 314 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 The cold front will actually move into the northern gulf Sat night bringing the rain with it. This will set up a very nice day or two starting Sun. Tue, this front looks to move back north as a warm front with a disturbance developing to the west riding along this interface. This should bring rain and storms back to the area Tue and Wed and may even tip into Thu. Each of these days could also see some strong to severe storms as well. But we will take this one system at a time. (TE) && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 636 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 A mix of mostly MVFR and VFR this morning should give way to mostly VFR for most terminals this afternoon. Convection will start to build later this afternoon and into the overnight. Timed with TEMPS/PROBs respectively. In convection expect VIS/CIG reductions. Winds will remain southerly at generally 10-15kt. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 314 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 Winds will remain southerly around 15kt into the weekend. Wind speeds may lower Sat and even become light northerly Sat night into Sun. Winds should shift to easterly by Mon and remain easterly at around 10-15kt through mid next week. There is the potential for a few storms over the coastal waters through this weekend. (TE) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 86 65 78 55 / 50 70 80 10 BTR 88 67 80 58 / 50 60 80 10 ASD 86 67 81 59 / 30 60 90 30 MSY 86 70 81 66 / 40 70 90 30 GPT 83 68 81 62 / 30 70 90 40 PQL 83 67 81 59 / 30 60 90 50 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....TE AVIATION...RDF MARINE...TE