FXUS64 KLUB 022345
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
645 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Benign weather tonight into Saturday with seasonably cool 
   temperatures Saturday morning.

 - Widespread heavy rain and flooding remain a concern for Monday
   and Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025

A break in the convective weather will finally occur tonight into 
Saturday. One final short wave trough was dropping southward from 
the Northern Plains into the Central Plains this afternoon. This 
will reinforce the cold front from yesterday. Surface ridging will 
move from Kansas into western Oklahoma tonight allowing for light 
winds and therefore good radiational cooling. Overnight temperatures 
tonight will be the coolest we have seen since mid-April ranging 
from the 30s in the southwestern Texas Panhandle to 40s elsewhere. 
Upper ridging will shift overhead on Saturday with another short 
wave trough close behind the ridge. However, this short wave trough 
will be too far to the west to affect the region and will mostly 
affect New Mexico.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025

Quiet conditions on Sunday should round out an overall pleasant 
weekend. A weak upper ridge will bring partly cloudy skies and highs 
in the low 70s. Attention will quickly turn to the very wet pattern 
developing Monday and Tuesday. An upper low tracking across the 
Southwest US will combine with relatively strong SE surface flow to 
allow for a large swath of moisture into the region. A shortwave out 
ahead of it will bring the first round of rainfall late Sunday into 
Monday, with a more potent wave propagating around the low bringing 
a stronger second round late Monday into Tuesday. Best moisture 
advection/forcing will be generally off the Caprock and this is 
subsequently where highest totals are expected. While uncertainty 
still remains as the event is 2-4 days out, rainfall amounts of 1 to 
3 inches are possible, again with highest amounts to the east. 
Model/ensemble averages in the Lubbock area are currently around 1.5 
inches. This will be fine-tuned as the event gets closer, so keep an 
eye on the latest forecast for potential impacts to outdoor plans. 
The aforementioned upper low will stall over the Rockies and begin 
to dissipate from mid-week onward. Lingering moisture and a number 
of weak waves merited leaving mentionable PoPs in the latest 
forecast. Generally NNE winds as well will keep temperatures below 
average, with highs a few degrees on either side of 70 through next 
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. 

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...12