FXUS64 KLZK 021723 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1223 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday Night) Issued at 239 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 Regional radar imagery depicts mature convection to the west over OK...with new convection now firing along a weak west-east boundary along/south of I-40 in AR. This SFC boundary in AR will lift a bit north this morning...with this new convection generally lifting north to NE along this boundary. The mature convection to the west over OK will then move east later this morning...overspreading much of the CWA by late morning into the early afternoon hrs. A cold front ahead of the upper shortwave to the NW will aide in pushing this convection ESE into this afternoon. By late this afternoon into tonight...this front will continue dropping SE through the state...with additional convection expected along this front into tonight. Eventually...precip chances will decrease from NW to SE by early Sat morning as the front drops SE of AR. However...the upper shortwave to the NW will deepen into a closed upper low north of AR by Sat/Sat night. There may be some wrap around moisture enter NRN AR Sat afternoon/evening to generate some SHRA and isolated TSRA. The potential for strong/SVR convection will exist into late this afternoon. Initially...some large hail will be the primary threat along this SFC boundary this morning...with maybe some potential for SVR wind gusts to reach the SFC. This will especially be true in the higher terrain nearby that may be above the low level inversion. By later this morning into the afternoon hrs...the potential for SVR convection will exist along/SE of the cold front where the best instability will exist. The primary threats this afternoon will be damaging wind and large hail...with an outside threat for a brief tornado. Damaging winds may be the main threat depending on the evolution of the convection to the west...probably evolving into a surging line or two as it progresses ESE through the SRN half of the area. Convection behind this potential MCS or QLCS will have less potential for being SVR...but still not completely out of the question for some large hail along/just ahead of the cold front as it moves SE also. The threat for SVR convection will then become low by late tonight as the front pushes SE. Some locally heavy rainfall could also be seen...which may result in some isolated flash flooding. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 239 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 Quiet conditions are expected to begin the period. Synoptically, there should be two separate areas of upper closed lows, one across Srn CA and the second across the OH/TN Valley regions. Between these features, an amplified compact upper ridge should be in place over the Srn/Cntrl/Nrn Plains. This setup looks similar to an omega block pattern. Translating down to the surface, high pressure should be positioned over the Cntrl/Nrn MS Valley beneath the upper ridge. Nrly clockwise flow around this surface high should usher drier air and cooler temperatures into the state. These nice conditions should prevail on Sunday and Monday. Unsettled weather will make a return however come Tuesday. On Tuesday, the W coast upper low should progress Ewrd across the Rockies and into the Srn/Cntrl Plains. Surface winds should switch to the S/SE locally and a moderating temperature/dew point regime will commence. PW values will really ramp up through the day. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and grow upscale into a complex of storms to our SW and W. PoPs will then increase from SW to NE across AR through the afternoon into the evening. Heading through mid and late week, upper level features appear to stall out. The former closed low should be situated across the Srn/Cntrl Plains which becomes blocked by the compact ridge over the Nrn MS Valley which is then blocked by stronger, NW-to-SE, jet dipping from Canada into the Great Lakes region which happens to be co-located with the latter closed low. If all these features come to fruition as depicted by long range guidance, periods of heavy rainfall would result over a multi-day period across the Natural State as upper level energy pinwheels around the upper low and across the region within background SWrly flow. Long range models are in a surprisingly good agreement to all the information provided above. Rainfall amounts could easily exceed a couple inches and possibly reach several inches over a rather large portion of the state. The threat for flooding, including flash flooding, will have to be closely monitored over the coming days given wet antecedent soil conditions of late. Some severe weather can not be ruled out at this time. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025 Focus for TSRA will be across the southern third of the forecast area through 01z. Scattered areas of MVFR ceilings will affect northern sections of the forecat area after 12z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 74 53 71 49 / 90 50 10 10 Camden AR 77 57 75 48 / 80 80 0 0 Harrison AR 68 47 65 45 / 90 20 0 10 Hot Springs AR 76 53 73 48 / 90 50 0 0 Little Rock AR 75 57 73 50 / 90 70 0 0 Monticello AR 79 61 77 52 / 80 90 10 0 Mount Ida AR 75 51 73 47 / 90 40 0 0 Mountain Home AR 69 49 66 45 / 90 20 20 10 Newport AR 74 56 70 50 / 90 70 10 10 Pine Bluff AR 77 59 74 50 / 80 90 0 0 Russellville AR 74 52 73 48 / 90 30 0 0 Searcy AR 74 55 72 49 / 90 70 10 0 Stuttgart AR 76 60 72 52 / 90 90 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...62