FXUS64 KMAF 021723 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1223 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1218 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025 - A few strong to severe storms will be possible across the southeastern Permian Basin, Stockton Plateau, and Lower Trans Pecos region late this afternoon into early this evening. - Low to medium (20-50%) rain/storm chances will continue through the weekend mainly along and west of the Pecos River. - Showers and storms considerably increase in coverage (50-80%) by Monday night across areas east of the Pecos River. Strong to severe thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall will be possible across far southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin, and into the Trans Pecos region on Monday night. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 Surface analysis depicts a stationary front sitting across New Mexico and the Texas panhandle early this morning. The aforementioned front is expected to move southward through the area around the morning commute as heights fall, bringing breezy conditions and shifting winds northerly to northeasterly. High temperatures are forecast to drop ~10-20 F from the previous day across much of the region on Friday. Hi-res guidance continue to show showers and thunderstorms developing near/along the cold front over the Trans Pecos and Stockton Plateau regions. Though not likely, we cannot rule out the possibility of a few storms becoming strong to severe. However, latest data suggests that the environment will be more conducive for the development of severe thunderstorms further east of our CWA. Chances of rain (<30%) stick around after midnight Saturday south of I-10 on the warm side of the boundary. Much of southeast New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin can expect to see lows fall into the mid to upper 40s Saturday night as heights continue to fall behind the cold front. Temperatures otherwise remain in the 50s elsewhere, except for low to mid 60s near and along the Rio Grande. Easterly to southeasterly upslope flow may foster the development of some showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon/evening, mainly west of the Pecos River. Despite winds veering to the east and southeast on Saturday, afternoon highs are forecast to be in the 70s areawide (except for mid to upper 60s at higher elevations and low to mid 80s near the Rio Grande). Greening && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 The next upper-level trough is forecast to deepen across the western CONUS Saturday night, with an associated upper-level low looking to dig across southern California and southwestern Arizona late Saturday night into Sunday. Shortwave ridging aloft over west Texas and southeast New Mexico Saturday night and Sunday morning will gradually shift east by Sunday afternoon as southwesterly flow aloft gradually spreads into the area ahead of the deepening storm system to our west. Boundary layer moisture with associated precipitable water values up to 0.7"-0.85" and some ascent provided by weak shortwave impulses embedded within W-SW flow aloft may be sufficient to aid in the development of a few showers or thunderstorms across western portions of the CWA (areas generally west of the Pecos River) on Saturday evening/ night. Another series of impulses within southwesterly flow aloft will lift over southeast New Mexico and portions of west Texas during the day on Sunday where precipitable water values may improve slightly to 0.75"-around 1". Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop over locations generally west of a Tatum, Ft. Stockton, Marfa line Sunday, with the best chance of convection (30-50%) favored over the southeast New Mexico Plains, Upper Trans Pecos, and Guadalupe Mountains vicinity by Sunday afternoon. Another relatively cool night is expected Saturday night with overnight lows mostly in the 50s, except upper 40s in the northern Permian Basin/northern portions of southeast New Mexico as well as in the mountains. Highs on Sunday should trend a few degrees warmer over most locations, with readings in the 70s to lower 80s (a few 90s possible along the Rio Grande). The upper-level low located over the vicinity of Arizona on Sunday night is forecast to lift very slowly toward the Four Corners region Monday into Monday night. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist over our forecast area ahead of this system during this time. Model solutions are in relatively good agreement with showing the mid to upper-level flow pattern becoming increasingly difluent over eastern portions of our forecast area on Monday night in advance of the upper-level storm system. A surface wave of low pressure should lift from southwest Texas late Monday afternoon and across the rest of our region through late Monday night. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop along and east of the mountains during the day Monday. Convective coverage should increase considerably across locations along and east of the Pecos River Monday evening into late Monday night as larger scale forcing arrives within the increasingly difluent flow pattern aloft and as the surface low pressure system/dryline gradually progresses eastward over the eastern half of our CWA. Rain/storm chances remain very good over the eastern half of the CWA, generally ranging from 40-80% coverage along and east of an Artesia-Pecos-Sanderson line (highest POPs over 60% are favored east of a Tatum-Kermit-Crane line). Shear/instability may be favorable for severe storms from the Permian Basin to the Lower Trans Pecos Monday evening into late Monday night. Locally heavy rainfall may also quickly result in 1-2" of rain with localized higher totals over the eastern half of the forecast area, particularly in the Permian Basin Monday night, which could result in localized flash flooding. Overnight lows Sunday night/Monday night should mostly range in the 50s to lower 60s across the region, except upper 40s in the higher terrain areas. Highs on Monday should top out in the mid 70s to lower 80s over northern portions of the CWA, and in the mid 80s to lower 90s over the southern part of the region (warmer readings in the 90s to around 100 degrees along the Rio Grande). The large upper-level low should slowly progress eastward across the southern Rockies and into the central Plains by Wednesday and could continue to meander over the central Plains states through the latter part of next week. Lingering moisture/lift could result in a few residual morning showers/storms over the eastern Basin Tuesday morning. A much drier airmass should spread through much of our CWA leading to dry weather conditions for Tuesday afternoon. Deep layer moisture may tend to increase again by Wednesday-Thursday along the base of the trough axis, so will maintain a low (20-30%) chance of showers and storms both days across a good portion of our region. Highs should continue to range in the 70s and 80s for the most part Tuesday-Thursday, while early morning lows mostly range in the 50s, with the exception of readings in the 40s over the far northern reaches of our area and in the higher terrain, and in the 60s along the Rio Grande and portions of the Lower Trans Pecos. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025 MVFR CIGs have held on to terminals where the front has moved through with ceilings lifting later this afternoon. Northerly winds with gusts near or just above 25kts continue through the afternoon. Decreasing winds after sunset. Brief, weak showers also possible, but not included due to low confidence on timing and impact at terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 48 75 50 77 / 0 0 0 10 Carlsbad 50 76 53 79 / 10 10 20 50 Dryden 59 77 58 79 / 30 20 10 10 Fort Stockton 54 76 57 81 / 10 20 10 40 Guadalupe Pass 50 68 52 74 / 10 20 20 50 Hobbs 45 75 49 76 / 10 0 10 30 Marfa 50 70 49 81 / 10 40 20 30 Midland Intl Airport 49 75 53 77 / 0 10 10 10 Odessa 49 75 54 77 / 0 10 10 20 Wink 52 78 56 81 / 10 10 10 30 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...93