FXUS64 KMOB 250521 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1221 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 401 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025 Now Through Sunday Night... 24.12Z upper air analysis shows a low-level ridge axis centered over the Bahamas, resulting in a warm, moist, and unstable southwesterly flow in place over the forecast area. To the north, straddling the northern CWA boundary, is a quasi-stationary front. South of the boundary, surface based instability ranges 2000-4000 J/KG with isolated to widely scattered showers and storms continuing to pop-up through the afternoon. Storms have been spreading north and northeast. A few of the storms have contained some concentrated, frequent lightning activity and enough structure for the issuance of a few SPS's. Overall, with High Cape-Low Shear environment, storms have been upright with cores collapsing quickly and resulting in short life-spans. At any rate, in addition to lightning, storms will continue to pose a gusty wind and brief heavy rain threat. Atop the front, a high-level west northwest flow exists. Upstream, forecasters see an organized convective complex embedded in the flow aloft dropping east-southeastward and moving out of eastern AR. Will be watching the progress of this feature through the remainder of the day and into the evening. A small area of slight risk of severe storms remains over Wayne Co. MS to Choctaw and northern Wilcox Co's in AL. Elsewhere, a marginal risk of severe weather extends north of a line from northern Mobile Co. to a Florala AL Line. If the more organized storms upstream can hold together, an isolated strong to severe storm with localized damaging winds and large hail cannot be ruled out. Considering that the convective line is approaching the MS Delta, impacts if any from the line may not make into our area until early evening at the earliest. All guidance shows storms quickly fading by the time they would approach the coast tonight. Considering the flow, we may begin to see a return to early AM slight chance of showers and storms over the Gulf waters and coast which is consistent with the latest WPC QPF. Patchy late night fog possible tonight over potions of the interior. Isolated to scattered storms are possible once again Sunday afternoon. However, upper level shortwave ridging will be a little more pronounced tomorrow and this may result in the best coverage of storms staying north of our region. Will maintain a 20-40% rain chance for Sunday, highest it appears to be over inland areas. For Sunday night, a small chance of showers/storms up along the US Hwy 84 corridor. Potential also exists for patchy late night fog formation. It will certainly feel like Memorial Day weekend with highs in the upper 80s near the coast to the lower half of the 90's inland. Heat indices in some areas will approach or exceed 100. /10 /34 Memorial Day Through Friday... Unsettled is the name of the game as we roll into the holiday and onwards through the week. We aren't looking at a washout, but there will definitely be active periods (in terms of storms) throughout the week. We transition to a zonal-ish flow aloft (mix of zonal and southwesterly flow) early next week with weak ridging to our south. A parade of subtle shortwaves dive through the flow aloft between the weak ridging and a trough drifting across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Timing out these subtle shortwaves is difficult at this time range, but the best chances for storms throughout the week looks to be on Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon as more notable shortwaves pivot through the area with increasing deep layer moisture (especially with a weakening front lingering across the region). Expect more of a typical summertime diurnal pattern with the storms next week with the highest chances for rain in the afternoon and early evening hours. Highest rainfall totals will remain generally northwest of the I-65 corridor, across parts of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama, where 3+ inches of rain will fall. Minor/nuisance type flooding is possible, especially if storms repeatedly move over the same locations. Beach Forecast - Rip current risk remains LOW through the holiday, but increases to MODERATE Tuesday through Wednesday. 07/mb && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Lingering patches of rain located mostly east of I-65 dissipates during the overnight hours. MVFR conditions will be possible with the precipitation, and also with late night patchy fog. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are anticipated to redevelop over much of the area on Sunday. Light and variable winds overnight become south to southwest 5-10 knots on Sunday. /29 && .MARINE... Issued at 401 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025 A generally light onshore flow will prevail this weekend into next week. The seabreeze will enhance winds across area bays in the afternoon hours, becoming moderate at times, especially over north Mobile Bay. /10 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 73 90 73 89 72 87 69 87 / 10 20 10 50 30 60 30 60 Pensacola 76 87 77 86 75 86 75 86 / 0 10 10 30 30 50 30 50 Destin 77 88 77 87 76 87 77 87 / 0 10 10 20 30 40 20 40 Evergreen 70 93 70 90 69 90 68 88 / 10 40 30 50 40 70 30 60 Waynesboro 70 92 70 90 68 88 67 87 / 20 50 30 70 40 70 30 70 Camden 69 91 70 89 68 86 67 85 / 30 50 40 70 60 70 40 60 Crestview 70 93 70 91 69 91 69 90 / 10 20 10 40 30 60 30 60 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob