FXUS64 KOHX 021609
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1109 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1047 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

- Strong to severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and
  evening with damaging wind gusts and large hail the main
  concerns. Tornado and flooding threat is low.

- Periods of showers and thunderstorms persist through Saturday,
  gradually decreasing into Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1047 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

A line of strong to severe storms is nearing the Tennessee River,
with a second line of equally potent storms currently pushing 
through eastern Arkansas. So it could be a long afternoon and
evening across Middle Tennessee. The environment across the area
is definitely unstable. CAPE values well in excess of 2,000 J/kg 
cover the entire mid state, and the morning sounding from OHX 
showed a 700-500 mb lapse rate of 7.3C/km. So the potential for 
strong updrafts is definitely there, even if shear values and 
helicities are relatively weak. It is possible that the existing
severe thunderstorm watch could be extended beyond the current
expiration time of 22Z, especially for eastern portions of Middle
Tennessee, if the storms maintain their strength. At any rate, a 
cold front will come through the area tomorrow morning, so rain 
and storms chances will taper off by the afternoon. Still, most of
Middle Tennessee remains under a marginal risk of severe storms 
on day 2, but the risk is much lower than today. With the fropa 
occurring on Saturday, cooler temperatures will spread across the 
region tomorrow, as well. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1047 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

Interestingly, the upper low associated with our weekend weather
system will stay in place just to our north into the early part of
next week. This will help keep cooler air locked in across Middle
Tennessee until about Tuesday, when temperatures will begin a slow
warming trend. Still, values next week will stay close to seasonal
normals. Rain chances will return to the forecast beginning 
Tuesday night and Wednesday and lasting through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 649 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

A challenging TAF period is coming up across Middle Tennessee
airfields. The main concern is afternoon TSRA, with some 
convection being severe with strong wind gusts and hail. A line of
TSRA is possible, moving from west to east across the state. Main
timing window was handled with a TEMPO at each terminal. Until
storms arrive, there's variable cloudiness around with S to SW
winds at 5-8 kts this morning.

After the storminess ends, additional rain chances build across 
the area as cold front moves closer. Overnight cigs are forecast 
to drop to MVFR after ~03z, then to IFR after ~09z with continuing
presence of rain showers. Isolated TS is also possible, but was 
too low for TAF inclusion.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      83  62  71  53 /  80  90  90  40 
Clarksville    81  60  71  51 /  80  90  90  40 
Crossville     79  57  66  50 /  70  70 100  60 
Columbia       84  61  70  51 /  80  90  90  30 
Cookeville     80  59  67  52 /  70  80 100  60 
Jamestown      80  57  67  51 /  70  70 100  70 
Lawrenceburg   83  61  69  51 /  80  90  90  30 
Murfreesboro   84  61  70  52 /  80  80  90  40 
Waverly        81  59  70  51 /  80  90  80  30 

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Sizemore