FXUS64 KSHV 070822 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 322 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday Night) Issued at 317 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025 The story of the short term forecast continues to be a series of disturbances being swept into the ArkLaTex on stubborn northwest flow. In a nutshell, amplifying ridging over the Pacific northwest and British Columbia in tandem with deep troughing over southern Canada and the Great Lakes is creating a pronounced upper level channel along which one system of storms after another will be conducted down the Plains and into the ArkLaTex, on a repetitive trajectory emphasized by a broad area of high pressure over Mexico and south Texas. With this upper level regime in place, the weekend will be very unsettled, to say the least. Tonight's system of storms looks to push east by southeast out of Oklahoma, largely passing the Four State Region by to our north, though a few storms are possible in our northernmost zones this morning. A warm and muggy afternoon is in store before the next complex arrives this evening. Guidance indicates the possibility of multiple waves of storms continuing well into the evening and overnight hours, coming to an end by sunrise Sunday morning. Zones roughly along and north of the I-20 corridor are included in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather, with an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) just clipping our northernmost zones. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary associated hazards. Additionally, training areas of heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding concerns across the northern half of the region, particularly north of the I-30 corridor, where several inches of rain were already received Friday, and not much additional rainfall will be needed to reach saturation and overwhelm runoff channels. A similar timing regime looks to be in store for Sunday, with a warm and muggy afternoon punctuated by scattered showers, before the more organized storm system sweeps in from the west. ECMWF guidance is already suggesting a more defined MCS structure to this system, which looks to arrive in the mid to late evening Sunday, continuing overnight into the very early hours of Monday morning. The new Day 2 outlook expands the Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) for severe weather into our northeast Texas zones and adjacent portions of Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana, with the remainder of the region south and east included in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5). Consistent with the emerging MCS structure, damaging winds look to be the primary associated hazard, with rather more pronounced hail and tornado probabilities than have been seen in recent systems impacting our region. Temperatures will continue to reach above average values as afternoon highs climb into the upper 80s to middle 90s today and tomorrow, with warm, muggy lows in the 70s. These temperatures coupled with muggy dewpoints lingering into the afternoon will push heat indices to near or just above the century mark. These values do not yet meet the criteria for heat product issuance, but sensitive groups and/or their caretakers would do well to exercise caution and limit outdoor exposure when possible. /26/ && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 317 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025 The northwest flow regime will continue into early next week, with the large ridge positioned over the Rockies and a deepening low over the Great Lakes, gradually lifting northeast along the St. Lawrence River basin. Meanwhile, a series of shortwaves will ride down the northwest flow into the ArkLaTex through the first half of the week, and the resulting soggy and unsettled pattern with see little interruption, with rainfall chances spreading areawide through the day Monday and continuing for much of the week to come. By mid to late week, the ridge looks to lift to the north. However, this will not spell any sort of end to our unsettled pattern, as a closed low takes shape over Texas, opening up into a northeastward tracking trough, favoring continued storm development, joined with onshore flow inducing afternoon convection chances. Thus, showers and storms will be expected across the ArkLaTex on a near daily basis through to the end of this extended forecast period. After this weekend's heat, a minor cooling trend will take shape in the form of areawide 80s through much of next week's rainier pattern with 90s returning late in the week. Lows in the 60s and 70s will continue throughout. /26/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025 For the 07/06Z TAF period, some overnight cumulus continues to linger across our I-20 terminals while cirrus increases from upstream convection. By mid to late morning, some patchy low stratus will likely return across our East TX terminals and possibly farther east toward KSHV. However, did limit MVFR/IFR cigs to East TX with low VFR cigs mentioned elsewhere with an expanding cu field by early afternoon. Any convection is likely to hold off until just beyond the end of this 06Z TAF period. Otherwise, near calm to light southerly winds overnight will increase by 07/15Z between 8-14 kts with higher gusts upwards of 20 kts through the afternoon hours before diminishing slightly after 08/00Z. /19/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 213 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Spotter activation is not expected through tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 95 76 94 74 / 0 30 20 60 MLU 96 74 92 72 / 10 20 40 50 DEQ 91 68 90 67 / 40 50 10 60 TXK 95 73 91 71 / 10 40 20 60 ELD 93 70 89 68 / 20 40 30 60 TYR 93 75 93 72 / 10 10 10 50 GGG 93 74 92 71 / 10 10 20 50 LFK 95 75 96 75 / 0 0 10 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...19