FXUS64 KSHV 181924 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 224 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday Night) Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 The skies seem to be staying quiet for the first part of this afternoon, but is expected to change later today as storms initiate. Recent models have continued to show storm initiation taking place around East Central Texas and propagating to the northeast into our region. The greatest risk of severe hazards will be in McCurtain and Red River Counties, but areas along and north of the I-20 corridor could see hazards as well. Thunderstorms could continue through the night for our northern counties, but shouldn't be severe in nature. Overnight lows will generally fall to the upper 60s to mid 70s. Another round of severe weather potential will come Monday, with a similar expectation of storm initiation to the west of the Ark- La-Tx. There is greater confidence for tomorrow's storms compared to those expected today. SPC's most recent outlook has a Slight Risk north of a line from east of Texarkana to south of Tyler, along with an Enhanced Risk along the I-30 corridor. Recent models have also keyed in on some messy storm development later in the evening along the dryline in central KS/OK/TX. Depending on if this verifies, and how far south the mass develops, some additional impacts could come to our northern counties overnight. All of which will contribute to a slight risk of flash flooding in the northwestern half of our region for Monday. /57/ && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 The persistant upper-level low that has been wreaking havoc from the Northern Plains will eventually be reabsorbed by the dominant flow, but not before a final cold front sweeps through the area with some final rain chances. These storms should give our northwestern counties a brief break and focus more on our eastern zones. Models still haven't agreed upon an initiation time, but will likely be in the afternoon rather than the evening like recent days. After the cold front moves through, we should see some slightly cooler and drier conditions for the next several days before another ridge sets things up for warming. Things should remain dry with the warming temperatures next week. We are also starting to see some rain signals trying to sneak back in to the forecast next weekend, but confidence is low on any detail now. /57/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 For the 18/18Z TAF update, MVFR vis/cigs continues to mix out as patchy VFR cigs become more widespread across the airspace. Cloud decks will remain as VCTS/-TSRA likely develops from 18/20Z-19/02Z in the northern 2/3rds of the airspace. MVFR/IFR vis/cigs will return by 19/10Z-15Z on southerly surface winds. /16/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon through the evening hours for areas generally north of the I-20 corridor and more likely for areas along and north of I-30. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 74 91 75 91 / 10 10 40 20 MLU 73 91 75 92 / 10 10 20 40 DEQ 67 85 67 83 / 40 60 80 10 TXK 70 90 73 87 / 30 30 60 20 ELD 69 90 70 89 / 40 10 50 40 TYR 73 89 72 86 / 10 50 50 10 GGG 72 89 73 88 / 10 30 50 10 LFK 74 92 74 93 / 0 10 30 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...57 LONG TERM....57 AVIATION...16