FXUS64 KSJT 032301 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 601 PM CDT Sat May 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and pleasant weather will prevail through Sunday. - An active weather pattern will develop early next week, with the best chances for widespread precipitation Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Some of the storms on Monday and Monday night may be strong to severe. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 134 PM CDT Sat May 3 2025 Pleasant weather will continue across West Central Texas into Sunday. A drier airmass will remain in place across the area, with cooler than normal temperatures expected. Skies will remain mostly clear tonight, with mostly sunny skies on Sunday. Expect mainly light east to southeast winds the next 24 hours, with lows tonight in the upper 40s and lower 50s, and highs Sunday mainly in the upper 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Saturday) Issued at 157 PM CDT Sat May 3 2025 An upper level low pressure system over the Four Corners region is forecast to eventually eject eastward into the Southern Plains by the middle of the week. Multiple shortwaves rotating around the low will move across west central Texas particularly on Monday and Monday night. Meanwhile, moisture levels will continue to increase across our area in advance of the upper low. As large scale forcing for ascent increases showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop Monday afternoon into the evening hours. A possible focus for strong to severe thunderstorms will be along a sharpening dryline over the eastern Permian Basin and far western portions of our forecast area. Very large hail and a few tornadoes would be possible especially with any discrete supercells. Models continue a indicate a line of storms moving west to east across the area Monday night into Tuesday morning. Large hail and damaging winds would be possible with this activity given favorable severe weather parameters. We'll also need to continue to monitor the potential for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding as these showers and storms sweep across the area. The rest of the work week looks relatively benign with only a slight chance of a few showers or storms on Wednesday. Temperatures will be pleasant for this time of the year. Highs will be in the 70s and 80s, with lows in the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 523 PM CDT Sat May 3 2025 VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Light winds overnight will increase tomorrow in the late morning to early afternoon. Gusts around 18 to 20 kts will be possible at most of our TAF sites tomorrow afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 50 78 58 69 / 0 0 10 60 San Angelo 50 80 60 76 / 0 10 10 60 Junction 50 80 58 75 / 0 10 10 60 Brownwood 48 79 55 71 / 0 0 10 60 Sweetwater 51 78 58 70 / 0 10 20 60 Ozona 54 76 60 77 / 0 10 20 50 Brady 50 79 57 71 / 0 0 10 60 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...AP