FXUS64 KTSA 021711 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1211 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1046 AM CDT Thu May 2 2025 - Drier and cool conditions expected this weekend. - Active/stormy weather pattern resumes next week, with heavy rainfall probable, especially late Monday night into Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1046 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 Outflow from the early morning MCS has pushed down into north TX, where new storm development is occurring. Thus, the severe threat is over for E OK/NW AR. The cold front shows up on visible sat as a SW-NE band of cloud and on radar mosaic as a band of showers moving E/SE across E KS. A few showers, and maybe a rumble of thunder, is expected to spread across far NE OK into NW AR later today, while the rain and thunder currently over SE OK tapers off. The cold front will push thru the region by tonight, and will lead to a Chamber of Commerce weekend ahead. Lacy && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 A strong thunderstorm complex continues to move eastward across OK early this morning. Meanwhile, storms ahead of this complex have developed and organized along a surface boundary in southeast OK and west-cenral AR, aided by rich low-level moisture and warm air advection. Storms are also forming along and just north of a slow-moving synoptic cold front that is currently draped near the I-44 corridor. The cold front will gradually push south and east of the forecast area as the morning progresses, likely helped by the eastward-advancing thunderstorm complex. The threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will persist through the remainder of the morning. There continues to be a limited tornado threat ahead (southeast) of the frontal boundary, mainly in far southeast OK where dewpoints are in the mid-upper 60s. The tornado threat will decrease as the morning progresses and should dissipate completely as the frontal boundary/thunderstorm complex and surface boundary collide. The main severe hazards through the rest of the morning will be damaging wind gusts, marginally severe hail, and heavy rainfall that may lead to flooding/flash flooding. In general, 1 to 3 inches of rain is expected to fall across much of the forecast area through the morning, locally higher amounts possible. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 7 AM across much of southeast OK. Additionally, a Flood Watch remains in effect for Okfuskee, Okmulgee, Muskogee, and McIntosh counties in OK until 1 PM this afternoon. Consensus in hi-res model guidance suggests the main thunderstorm complex will shift east of the forecast area between 9AM-11AM this morning. However, showers and thunderstorms will likely linger through the afternoon and possibly into the evening as another mid-level vorticity lobe and a secondary, and more obvious, frontal boundary pushes through the forecast area this afternoon. Latest HRRR run indicates MUCAPE values jumping up to near 1000 J/kg along this afternoon boundary. Given that 0-6 km shear values between 50-60 knots and decently steep mid-level lapse rates (7-7.5 C/km) are in place, strong to marginally severe thunderstorms appear possible, especially along the frontal boundary and where any existing outflow boundaries remain. This is assuming the worked over atmosphere from this morning can destabilize enough by this afternoon. Will continue to monitor trends through the daytime. Temperatures this afternoon will be abnormally cool for early May as precipitation chances remain intact and cloud cover remains thick through the daytime. All precipitation chances should end by early-mid evening, with drier air filtering in behind the passing frontal boundary. As such, expect much cooler and drier weather tonight, with overnight low temperatures dropping into the 40s and lower-50s. Mejia && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 Main mid-level trough axis and surface frontal boundary responsible for the stormy weather this morning will shift east of the area by the start of the long-term period. Ridging and an Omega Block will build over eastern OK and northwest AR this weekend, resulting in mainly pleasant and dry weather through Monday. Temperatures will run slightly below normal for early May. Highs through Monday will range from the upper-60s to mid- 70s each day, with morning low temperatures dropping into the 40s for most locations through Monday morning. The Omega Block will break down early-mid next week as another powerful mid/upper-level low digs and builds the Four Corner region by Monday evening/night. Latest model guidance has unsettled weather returning to eastern OK and northwest AR by late Monday night or early Tuesday morning. Guidance shows the upper-level low spins and dances over the central CONUS, getting sandwiched between two ridges on either side of it. This will likely produce multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through much of the upcoming workweek. It still appears that although there will be some severe threat associated with the storm system, the bigger threat and concern will be additional heavy rainfall for the area, especially late Monday night through Tuesday. It probably won't rain all day every day next week, with rainfall chances and precipitation amounts lowering Wednesday and Thursday, but periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms will still exist. Mejia && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025 VFR conditions will prevail thru the period. Some rain showers remain around KMLC, but those should dissipate later this afternoon. Low VFR cigs at the southern and eastern terminals will clear out tonight. A shift to a W to NW wind will occur as a cold front pushes thru the region. Sfc wind speeds should remain below impactful levels. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 47 70 46 71 / 0 10 0 0 FSM 51 73 47 74 / 20 10 0 0 MLC 48 71 46 74 / 10 0 0 0 BVO 43 71 42 72 / 0 10 0 0 FYV 45 68 42 70 / 20 10 0 0 BYV 47 66 43 67 / 20 20 10 0 MKO 46 68 44 70 / 10 10 0 0 MIO 45 67 42 67 / 0 20 0 0 F10 47 69 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 51 71 47 72 / 20 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ UPDATE...30 SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...30