FXUS65 KABQ 040553 AAC AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1153 PM MDT Sat May 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1140 PM MDT Sat May 3 2025 - Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will impact portions of eastern New Mexico on Sunday. A Flood Watch for flash flooding is in effect for eastern New Mexico, including much of the Sangre de Cristo and northern Sacramento Mountains, Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. - Another round of strong to severe storms is forecast for Monday afternoon through the evening hours in eastern New Mexico. There will be more heavy rainfall across this same region through at least Tuesday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 559 PM MDT Sat May 3 2025 Cancelled today's Flood Watch for the south central mountains, since the chance for heavy rain is dwindling for the rest of the day. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the risk of flash flooding for most of the area along and east of the central mountain chain on Sunday afternoon and night. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 156 PM MDT Sat May 3 2025 The weak Pacific low that was over southern AZ yesterday has opened up and is ejecting northeast into western NM as a weak shortwave trough, providing a little added forcing and leading to an uptick in coverage of convection this afternoon. However, instability and shear are lacking, so garden variety storms will be the rule today with the only significant threat being the potential for burn scar flash flooding in/near Ruidoso going into the early evening hours. Stronger southwest winds aloft will begin to hit the area overnight into Sunday as a potent upper level low, currently deepening and diving south along the CA coast, moves east from SoCal and into AZ. At the same time, low level flow will increase out of the southeast in response to the potent upper level feature and Gulf moisture advection will be underway. This evolution will bring an increase in shear and instability to much of the area, but most notable across eastern NM where both a threat for flash flooding and severe storms will reside. 12Z model solutions are showing significant QPF across much of eastern NM Sunday through Sunday night, with the greatest amounts across the Northeast Highlands and Plains. Forcing from the upper low and strong southeast inflow of Gulf moisture will be more than sufficient to keep convection going all night long. Issued a Flash Flood Watch to cover that event, with amounts generally ranging from 1-2", although there is a good chance that spotty higher totals near 4" will materialize. Some areas, such as the East Central Plains between Fort Sumner and Broadview, have been recently saturated and will require less rain to cause significant runoff. While the flash flood threat takes front and center, there is also a threat for severe storms Sunday into Sunday night across eastern NM, thanks to 0-6km bulk shear of 40-60kts and forcing from the approaching upper low. Otherwise, instability will be moderate at best given cooler temperatures in the lower boundary layer. Snow is forecast across the peaks Sunday and especially Sunday night as colder temperatures aloft associated with the upper low circulation move into the state. The most notable snowfall will be over the peaks of the southern Sangre De Cristos, where amounts in excess of one foot are likely. We're talking generally above 10Kft. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 156 PM MDT Sat May 3 2025 A complex set-up is expected for Monday as the main upper low migrates slowly towards the Four Corners. Meanwhile, a dry slot will invade the south central/southeast portion of the CWA early in the morning, with the primary band of QPF pivoting into north central and northeast NM. By 18Z/Mon, this drier air will invade the entire ern plains. Focus shifts to a vorticity maximum that will rotate eastward along the southern periphery of the broader trough and will be positioned near the NM bootheel by 00Z/Tues. Backing low-level flow should strengthen, bringing deeper Gulf moisture back into the ern plains. Meanwhile, stout 0-6km bulk shear will increase into the 50-60kt range per the SREF guidance by late afternoon. While MUCAPE values will only range from 500- 750 J/kg, stronger deep-layer shear should support some longer- lived updrafts. Based on the timing of these features, CI should develop by late afternoon or early evening across the southeast zones. Activity will likely blossom Monday evening and overnight as the aforementioned vort max pivots toward south central NM. Expect moderate to heavy precipitation to expand northward into east central NM. By 18Z/Tue, the disturbance will shift into the OK/TX panhandles as it starts to be absorbed by the main upr low. As a result, expect the greatest risk for flash flooding on Tue morning through early afternoon to be focused over the northeast plains. This aligns rather well with the WPC Day 3 ERO product. While there will be a 6-12 hour gap in heavy rainfall potential, there is high confidence (>90% chance) that another Flood Watch will be needed across the eastern plains late Monday afternoon through at least Tue morning. The LREF mean QPF suggests 0.50 to 1.15 inch from 00Z/Tue through 00Z/Wed, with the 90th percentile exceeding 2.25 inches over the northeast plains, with 1-2 inches south of Interstate 40. Areas of greatest concern will be locales that already have saturated soils from the initial round of heavy rainfall in the short-term period. The only other hazard for Mon- Tue will be significant snowfall accumulations over higher peaks of the northern mtns, where another 3-8 inches of accumulation is the most likely scenario. The WSSI indicates any impacts will be relegated to routes along/near mountain passes. Another disturbance on the backside of the upper low embedded in northwest flow will track across the region. Afternoon instability coupled with upper level ascent will allow for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms for Wednesday into Wednesday evening. The risk for severe storms will be low. North-northwest flow continues for Thursday with any diurnal convection relegated mainly over the higher terrain. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 PM MDT Sat May 3 2025 Light showers and a few thundestorms continue across south central NM late tonight and will continue to shift northeastward through the early morning hours. These storms will be capable of gusty outflow winds to 40kt. Additional light showers may develop across the Rio Grande Valley and south central mountains and persist through sunrise. Around 18-19Z, storms will quickly erupt over central NM before expanding eastward through the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will persist across eastern NM through the overnight hours. Some storms will be capable of large hail, damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall. MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys will be possible in the strongest storms through the afternoon, then will be more likely across a larger area overnight in steady rainfall. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 156 PM MDT Sat May 3 2025 A potent upper level low will approach Sunday and move over Monday through Wednesday, bringing higher humidity, cooler temperatures and good chances for wetting precipitation. Soaking rains are expected across much of eastern NM Sunday through Tuesday, with accumulating snow across the peaks of the northern mountains. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are likely in the lower Rio Grande Valley and near the Southwest Mountains Sunday due to stronger southerly winds ahead of the approaching upper low, but otherwise critical fire weather conditions are not expected through next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 47 70 42 60 / 20 60 70 80 Dulce........................... 34 65 36 57 / 20 80 80 80 Cuba............................ 39 63 37 57 / 20 40 80 60 Gallup.......................... 36 66 32 56 / 40 40 70 60 El Morro........................ 39 63 33 53 / 40 40 70 60 Grants.......................... 35 66 33 59 / 40 40 60 50 Quemado......................... 39 65 33 55 / 30 20 40 50 Magdalena....................... 45 67 38 60 / 40 30 30 20 Datil........................... 40 63 33 56 / 50 30 30 30 Reserve......................... 33 67 32 62 / 20 20 40 30 Glenwood........................ 38 72 35 66 / 10 30 30 20 Chama........................... 34 60 34 51 / 30 70 80 80 Los Alamos...................... 46 62 42 55 / 20 70 80 60 Pecos........................... 40 59 40 56 / 30 80 90 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 37 61 37 54 / 20 60 80 80 Red River....................... 32 52 32 44 / 30 70 90 90 Angel Fire...................... 28 55 32 51 / 20 80 100 80 Taos............................ 34 64 36 58 / 20 60 70 80 Mora............................ 35 57 36 55 / 20 80 100 80 Espanola........................ 44 70 43 64 / 20 50 60 60 Santa Fe........................ 44 63 42 57 / 20 70 70 60 Santa Fe Airport................ 43 66 43 62 / 20 70 70 50 Albuquerque Foothills........... 51 69 47 64 / 30 60 50 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 50 70 46 65 / 30 50 40 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 49 73 45 67 / 30 50 40 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 49 71 46 66 / 20 50 50 30 Belen........................... 46 74 43 68 / 30 40 30 10 Bernalillo...................... 48 72 46 67 / 20 60 50 40 Bosque Farms.................... 45 74 43 67 / 30 40 30 20 Corrales........................ 47 72 46 67 / 20 60 50 30 Los Lunas....................... 46 74 44 67 / 30 40 30 20 Placitas........................ 49 68 46 62 / 30 60 50 40 Rio Rancho...................... 49 71 46 66 / 20 60 50 30 Socorro......................... 50 76 45 70 / 40 20 20 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 43 63 40 59 / 30 70 60 40 Tijeras......................... 45 66 42 60 / 30 70 60 40 Edgewood........................ 41 65 40 61 / 30 60 60 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 37 66 38 62 / 30 60 60 30 Clines Corners.................. 40 61 38 59 / 30 80 70 30 Mountainair..................... 42 66 40 61 / 30 40 50 20 Gran Quivira.................... 41 67 39 61 / 30 40 50 20 Carrizozo....................... 47 70 44 65 / 30 50 40 10 Ruidoso......................... 42 62 40 59 / 40 70 60 30 Capulin......................... 40 62 39 53 / 20 60 80 90 Raton........................... 37 66 40 59 / 20 70 80 80 Springer........................ 38 66 42 60 / 20 70 90 80 Las Vegas....................... 40 60 40 59 / 20 80 90 70 Clayton......................... 45 70 46 59 / 10 30 70 90 Roy............................. 42 64 43 59 / 10 60 90 90 Conchas......................... 46 71 48 67 / 5 60 90 80 Santa Rosa...................... 45 69 47 64 / 5 60 90 50 Tucumcari....................... 47 73 49 67 / 5 40 80 80 Clovis.......................... 47 72 50 69 / 5 30 80 80 Portales........................ 46 73 50 71 / 5 30 80 80 Fort Sumner..................... 47 72 50 70 / 5 60 90 50 Roswell......................... 53 77 54 77 / 10 70 70 30 Picacho......................... 46 69 46 70 / 20 70 80 20 Elk............................. 43 67 42 69 / 30 70 70 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for NMZ214-215-223-226>239. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....46 AVIATION...34