FXUS65 KBOI 102028
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
228 PM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night...At 2 PM MDT showers 
were beginning over higher terrain in Malheur and Owyhee Counties,
with thunderstorms expected to begin by 3 PM MDT. Latest hi-res
models depict scattered strong to severe thunderstorms late
today and this evening in eastern Oregon, and show outflow winds
as strong as 60 mph surging eastward across Malheur County and 
across the Idaho border this evening. Initial thunderstorms will
have little rain so these strong winds will also produce areas 
of blowing dust. Storms will decrease after sunset, but isolated
weaker thunderstorms will continue through the night. On 
Wednesday a Pacific short wave trough will move inland and 
develop numerous showers and afternoon thunderstorms, some with
hail, especially in the Idaho mountains north of the Snake 
Basin. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for those areas 
Wednesday afternoon and evening. The watch area includes the 
Wapiti Burn Scar and Idaho State Highway 21 where it passes 
through the burn scar. Heavy rains in the watch area may drop
as much as 1.50 inch of rain in an hour, and there is a 10-15 
percent chance that one of those storms will directly hit the 
burn scar and cause flash flooding. Thunderstorms elsewhere 
Wednesday will be fewer and weaker and should end in all areas 
Wednesday night. Thursday looks mostly sunny except for a slight
chance of afternoon showers and non-severe thunderstorms, again
in the Idaho Mountains. Low temps tonight will be similar to 
last night. Highs Wednesday should be 5-10 degrees cooler than 
today. Lows Wednesday night will be cooler than tonight and 
highs Thursday should be about the same as on Wednesday. 

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...Dry southwest flow aloft
will dominate over the extended as our area remains between an 
upper level trough near the coast and an upper level ridge to 
our east. This will bring mostly dry conditions through Sunday, 
except for a slight (20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms
on Friday in the northern mountains as a weak shortwave trough 
moves across the area. Temperatures will be consistent from day 
to day, averaging 5-10 degrees above normal. Forecast confidence
decreases Monday and Tuesday as ensembles differ on the 
evolution of the upper level trough. Around 30% of ensembles 
bring the trough inland with a cooling trend and shower/
thunderstorm potential, while the rest are warmer and drier. 
For now, the result is around a 20% chance of showers and 
thunderstorms across the northern mountains Monday and Tuesday 
with a slight cooling trend in temperatures on Tuesday. Expect 
locally breezy winds each afternoon through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR. High density altitude this afternoon due
to hot temperatures. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms across E 
Oregon and the higher terrain of SW Idaho this afternoon will
expand into lower valleys of SW Idaho this evening. Thunderstorms
may create outflows up to 50 kt and blowing dust. Additional 
showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday with potential for hail 
and heavy rain. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt, except gusty and 
erratic near thunderstorms. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: 
SW-W 5-15 kt. 

KBOI...VFR. High density altitude this afternoon due to heat.
20% chance of thunderstorms this evening producing outflows up 
to 40 kt and blowing dust. Outflows may travel from distant 
thunderstorms and impact KBOI (50% chance). Surface winds: 
NW 7-12 kt.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening 
     IDZ011-013.
     Heat Advisory until 10 PM MDT this evening IDZ012.
OR...Heat Advisory until 10 PM MDT /9 PM PDT/ this evening ORZ064.
     Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT /5 PM PDT/ Wednesday 
     ORZ672-673.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....ST
AVIATION.....ST