FXUS65 KBOI 200912 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 312 AM MDT Tue May 20 2025 .SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night...At 2 AM MDT there were still a couple lightning strikes in the Owyhee Mountains, suggesting thunderstorms are possible into the morning. Best instability this morning (although only marginal) is indicated in the west-central Idaho mountains, so we added isolated thunderstorms there through 9 AM MDT. After that, models show gradual stabilization, with no further chance of thunderstorms until Thursday afternoon, again along our northern CWA border when the next Pacific trough moves inland. Meanwhile, breezy cool weather will continue today under strong WNW flow aloft. Strongest winds, 20-30 mph with gusts to 35 mph, will blow this afternoon in south-central Idaho including the Camas Prairie. Wednesday should be 5 degrees warmer than today, and also less windy, as a short wave Pacific upper ridge moves inland, and Thursday another 2 degrees warmer before the next upper trough moves inland across WA. That trough will produce a 30 to 50 percent chance of showers across the northern half of our CWA, and 10-20 percent chance of thunderstorms in our northern mountains, then clearing Thursday night as the trough passes by to our north. .LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...One last Pacific trough forecast to move inland Friday, with another 20-30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms across our western and northern areas. After that, an upper ridge will build strongly northward from the Great Basin bringing sunny, warmer days Saturday through Monday. High temps Saturday will be in the 60s through 70s, then about 5 degrees warmer Sunday, and another 5 degrees Monday, then dropping back slightly Tuesday. A weak upper trough off California will increase clouds late Monday, leading to a 20 percent chance of showers over eastern Oregon and west- centtral Idaho Monday night and Tuesday. && .AVIATION...VFR. Lingering showers may continue across SW ID (KBOI and KEUL) through the early morning. Mountains obscured at times in precipitation. Snow levels in the 5500-6500 feet MSL range overnight. Surface winds: Variable 5-10 kt overnight, becoming NW 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late this morning and afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 15-25 kt. KBOI...VFR. Some more light rain and vicinity showers are possible until early morning. Variable winds 5-10 kt, becoming NW 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt Tuesday late morning/early afternoon. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....LC AVIATION.....JY