FXUS65 KFGZ 021751
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1051 AM MST Fri May 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Expect seasonably warm daytime temperatures through 
Saturday, with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Light 
winds today become a bit breezier from the southwest on Saturday. 
Much colder temperatures and areas of rain and snow, along with 
thunderstorms, arrive Sunday afternoon through Monday. Showers and 
thunderstorms persist through Wednesday, before drier and warmer 
weather arrives later in the week.

&&

.UPDATE...Minor updates to mention more thunderstorm activity this 
afternoon have already been sent. No further updates are planned.

.PREV DISCUSSION /229 AM MST/...A low pressure system is currently 
centered over southern California, with a weak area of high pressure 
still trying to hold on across eastern Arizona. As we find ourselves 
in this transition period, temperatures will remain near normal for 
this time of year, but chances for showers and thunderstorms this 
afternoon could quickly cool daytime highs. Looking through some of 
the hi-res guidance, activity this afternoon appears to focused 
along and south of I-40. We can't rule out precipitation reaching 
areas further north in our CWA, but expect the greater activity to 
be across Yavapai County and southern Apache/Navajo Counties. 

This first trough will exit the state on Saturday, but a stronger
low pressure system will be following quickly behind. With the
lack of a true break between the two systems, chances for showers
will continue on Saturday, primarily along and north of the
Mogollon Rim. Not only is this second system a more intense
trough, but it's also much colder. We will see temperatures drop
nearly 10 degrees between Saturday and Sunday, and the moisture
associated with this system could bring snowfall for areas across
the High Country. Even with the potential for snow accumulation, 
totals look to be minimal to none across populated areas. The 
Kaibab Plateau, San Francisco Peaks, and Chuska Mountains could 
see a couple of inches throughout the course of this storm 
passage. With how the current model guidance is trending, this 
trough might hang up across the Four Corners at the beginning of 
next week, so this showery pattern is forecast to continue through
the next several days. Outside of precipitation, gusty winds will
also be a result from this trough passage. Expect winds to peak 
on Sunday with gusts between 30-40 mph, especially across eastern 
Arizona. 

Thursday Onward...As the trough pushes towards the Midwest, an
area of high pressure is expected to build across the Southwest.
This pattern will bring temperatures back to above normal and
quickly dry things out. Winds will also relax under this ridge, so
not expecting any fire weather concerns towards the end of the
this forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 02/18Z through Saturday 03/18Z...VFR 
conditions prevail. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
develop through early this evening, with localized MVFR conditions
in the heaviest showers. Winds light and variable or terrain 
driven early, E-NE 5-10kts through around 21Z, then becoming more 
variable up to 10 kts through the remainder of the afternoon and 
evening. 

OUTLOOK...Saturday 03/18Z through Monday 05/18Z...VFR conditions,
MVFR in/near heavier showers. Scattered showers or thunderstorms 
after 18Z Saturday, then more widespread rain and snow showers or
thunderstorms Sunday into Monday. Winds S-SW 10-20kts Saturday, 
S-SW 15-30kts Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday...Isolated to scattered showers 
and thunderstorms over and south of the Mogollon Rim today. Coverage 
will shift north Saturday to mainly along and north of the Mogollon 
Rim. Northeast to east winds 10 to 15 mph today, with variable and 
gusty winds near showers or storms. Southwest winds around 15 mph 
with gusts up to 25 mph on Saturday.  

Sunday through Tuesday...Cooler temperatures and chances for showers 
and thunderstorms each day. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts 
30 to 40 mph on Sunday. West-southwest winds 10 to 20 mph Monday and 
Tuesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson/Konieczny
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff