FXUS65 KGGW 042103 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 303 PM MDT Sun May 4 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: 1) Warm, dry, and breezy conditions will raise fire weather concerns through this evening. 2) Gusty north winds will develop behind a cold front tonight that will linger into Monday, leading to rough waves on Fort Peck Lake. 3) Isolated showers will be possible tonight and Monday with the front with cooler temperatures through the middle of the week. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper ridging leading to hot, dry, and breezy conditions this afternoon will give way to a cold frontal passage this evening. As winds switch to the north and increase tonight and Monday, the Lake Wind Advisory remains in fine shape for Fort Peck Lake from 9PM this evening until 9PM Monday. Some showers remain possible tonight and Monday with appreciable QPF confined to the western zones where it may be a bit steadier, perhaps with an isolated thunderstorm. Cooler and drier weather look to set up for the middle of the week before the next upper ridge builds into the area with a warmup back into the 80s for the second half of the work week. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Confidence is high on warm and dry conditions this afternoon, breezy and showery conditions tonight and Monday, and low on placement and amount of rainfall from the showers. NBM handled the forecast reasonably well throughout, with minor adjustments for near term winds. && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATED: 2045Z FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR most of the time. Areas of MVFR late tonight. DISCUSSION: Upper ridging to begin with will lead to VFR conditions, but a cold front is expected this evening and tonight which will lead to lower ceilings, isolated showers, and potential MVFR periods. WIND: South to southeast winds at 5 to 15 kts, gusting to 25 kts will switch to the northwest and north after 06z and increase, ranging from 10 to 20 kts, gusting to 30 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Upper ridging remains firmly in place this afternoon with very warm temperatures, highs in the 80s, south winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph, and relative humidity between 10 and 15 percent expected. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 8pm this evening for Fire Weather Zones 120 and 122. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM MDT Monday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley- Garfield-McCone-Petroleum. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties-Fort Peck Reservation and Daniels/Roosevelt/Sheridan Counties. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow