FXUS65 KLKN 020849
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
149 AM PDT Fri May 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Mostly sunny and warmer today with highs in the 70s.
Increasing clouds later this evening and overnight. Showers and
thunderstorms impact much of the region on Saturday. Wettest areas
on Saturday are expected to be eastern Humboldt, western Elko,
Lander, and portions of NW Nye counties where a quarter to a half
of in of rain is expected. Shower activity continues through the 
weekend with the higher rain amounts focused across central and
eastern NV. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday. High pressure centers over
the inter-mountain west today with mostly sunny skies over
northern and central NV. Afternoon high temperatures today will 
range from upper 60s to upper 70s, which will be around 10 degrees
above normal. Weak instability across portions of central NV, 
including NW Nye, S Lander and S Eureka Counties will result in 
some cumulus cloud build ups this afternoon, however not 
expecting (5% chance) any thunderstorms to develop. 

Trough energy approaching the west coast tonight will nudge the 
ridge over Nevada eastward. Clouds increase from west to east 
later this evening and overnight which will help keep the low 
temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal into early Saturday 
morning, with most locations only dropping into the low 40s. 

Ahead of the approaching trough, southerly winds will increase 
across central and northeastern NV later Saturday morning and 
through the afternoon and early evening hours. Strongest winds 
Saturday afternoon are expected across central NV, where sustained
south winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts of 30 to 45 mph are 
expected. Mid-level moisture increases across western portions of
the CWA Saturday morning, and across the entire CWA by late 
Saturday afternoon. Mid-level moisture in combination with 
increasing instability will result in scattered to numerous 
showers across most of the region Saturday afternoon, along with 
isolated to scattered thunderstorms. A slow moving boundary is 
expected to set up across north-central NV Saturday afternoon, 
with drier southerly flow pushing in through central NV meeting up
with the wetter air mass which will be dropping in from the W-NW 
through Humboldt County, western Elko and northern Lander and 
Eureka Counties. Along the boundary between the air masses is 
where the bulk of the thunderstorm activity is expected on 
Saturday, though more isolated activity is still possible (10-20%
chance) over nearly the entire CWA. The heavier rainfall amounts 
Saturday afternoon and evening are expected generally to the west 
and north of the line extending from Tonopah, NE through central 
Eureka County and up through Jarbidge. Those areas can expect 
between a tenth and a half inch of rain between 11AM and 11PM 
Saturday. Areas to the south and east of that line can expect 
between a trace and 0.15 inches of rain through Saturday evening. 
Locally heavier amounts are possible in any stronger
thunderstorms. Lighter shower activity is expected to continue 
across the CWA Saturday night, though snow levels are expected to 
remain at or above 9000 feet. 

.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday

Widespread rain and scattered afternoon thunderstorms are 
expected for Sunday as a large upper-level trough pushes ashore 
and moves east over the Silver State. Showers will continue on 
Monday an the low slowly shifts east and begins to exit Nevada. On
Tuesday, a shortwave trough will dive south and merge with the 
low, bringing showers over eastern Nevada. Rainfall accumulations 
are forecast to be higher in higher elevations and areas south of 
I-80. Between 0.3-0.5 inches of rain is expected in lower 
elevations north of the interstate, and 0.5-0.8 inches of rain is 
forecast in valleys south of I-80. Light snow is forecast in the 
mountain ranges, but none is expected in lower elevations due to 
warm daytime temperatures.

High pressure will start to build on Wednesday and remain in place
through Friday morning. Temperatures will warm in the later part
of the week, with highs reaching the upper 70s and lower 80s. On
Friday afternoon, models are showing a weak low pressure system 
coming ashore and moving over Nevada. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms may develop from this system, but the probability
appears low. 

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected at all terminals over the
next 24 hours. Winds will generally be from the S-SW at 5-10 kts
at KWMC, KEKO, KELY, and KTPH, and from the N-NW at 5-10 kts at
KBAM. Few to scattered clouds are expected to develop during the
afternoon between FL100 to FL150 ahead of a low pressure system 
approaching the Pacific Northwest. This system will continue to 
move east and bring unsettled weather to the region over the 
weekend, including breezy winds, rain and mountain snow showers, 
and a chance of thunderstorms. 

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None. 

&&

$$

96/89/90