FXUS65 KPIH 021722 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 1122 AM MDT Fri May 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and warmer with temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal Friday and Saturday. - Rain and thunderstorm potential Sunday through Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 158 AM MDT Fri May 2 2025 Short term continues to look dry or mostly dry. High pressure over the area will continue to produce light winds into Saturday. Latest model guidance has backed off the winds slightly for Saturday afternoon. Wind gusts look like they may stay under 20 mph across much of east Idaho. The Magic Valley and hills south of Burley may see slightly stronger gusts, up to 25 or 30 mph. Highs still look 10 to 15 degrees above normal with max temps in the low to mid 70s across the Snake Plain and Magic Valley today, and then in the 75 to 80 range for Saturday. The threat for showers has diminished noticeably Saturday night as the better areas for moisture are a little further west (because of timing of shortwave trough moving through the northern Rockies) and south (closer to the track of a low pressure system moving through the southwestern states). As a result, Saturday night could be dry for many across central and east Idaho. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 158 AM MDT Fri May 2 2025 Still looking at showery weather for Sunday into midweek. However the mechanism for how we may see the showers has changed some. There is a large low that will be moving through the southwestern states during this time. Also there is a shortwave trough passing through the northern Rockies that will pull some of the moisture associated with the low northward into our area. However, the models are now developing a low in the base of that trough which could help to increase rain amounts across our area. Our rain amounts for this event still looks like around 0.10 to 0.25 inches with potentially up to 0.50 inches across the southeast highlands. However, there is quite a bit of uncertainty with the amounts because its not certain how this system will evolve. The models are now showing this system moving east for late week and for now, the weather looks drier. Although, low confidence at this point as this whole system is large enough that it is affecting any other potential systems that may be trying to move in behind it. Temperatures continue to look above normal through the extended. Days with the greatest threat for showers are cooler, with temps sitting closer to 5 degrees above normal. Potentially, we could be flirting with highs once again near 80 for the Snake Plain and Magic Valley if we remain dry late next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1121 AM MDT Fri May 2 2025 As a ridge of high pressure moves over Eastern Idaho, quiet weather is expected at all TAF sites with VFR conditions persisting today and tomorrow. We will see mainly clear skies and light winds through this timeframe. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM...13 AVIATION...AMM