FXUS65 KPUB 021102 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 502 AM MDT Fri May 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Besides isolated thunder late this afternoon across the southern Sangre De Cristo/San Juan mountains, it will be dry and warmer today. - Above normal temperatures and continued chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected for this weekend, mainly over and near the mountains. - The forecast continues to trend towards a potential for heavy rainfall through next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 303 AM MDT Fri May 2 2025 Currently... Showers were located generally south of US50 and were continuing to push southward. This activity is associated with a shortwave moving onto the central/southern plains. Today and Tonight... Showers should end several hours prior to sunrise this AM, with clearing skies shortly thereafter. Overall, today will be a nice day, with temperatures rising into the 60s most of the plains, with L60s along the divides and U60s over the lower Ark Rvr Valley. San Luis Valleys should see max temps in the L60s, with 40s and 50s mtns. It will be predominantly dry today, although some moisture will push up from NM and affect the S Sangre De Cristo mtns regionS San Juans and these locations will some isold TSRA later this afternoon. Tonight, mostly clear skies should prevail regionwide. The only exception will be over the S San Juans where clouds will be on the increase. Temps tonight will fall into the 30s over the plains. and some pockets of frost may be possible as temps will be close to 32 in some locations, especially the far eastern plains from Lamar northward and over mainly northern El Paso county. The SLV should see temps around 30s with 20s mtns. \/Hodanish && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 303 AM MDT Fri May 2 2025 Saturday and Sunday.. Models keep upper ridging over the Rockies on Saturday, with an upper low coming onshore over southern California by Sunday morning. This pattern will keep convection mainly isolated on Saturday, and mostly confined to the high country on Saturday as well. Best chances for meaningful rainfall will be over the high country, though a few weakening showers and sprinkles may sneak out into the I-25 corridor through the evening hours. Daytime highs both days look to be above normal and fairly consistent as well, with temperatures climbing into the upper 70s and low 80s across the majority of the plains, low to mid 70s for the Pikes Peak region and the southern I-25 corridor, and 60s for mountain valleys both days. Coverage and intensity for thunderstorms increase heading into Sunday as the upper low approaches, with moist southerly flow also increasing on Sunday. Southerly winds gusting to 40 mph will be possible on Sunday, and a few stronger thunderstorms will be possible as well, as moisture and instability begin to increase across the area. Small hail and gusty outflow winds will be the most likely risks, though a few stronger storms will be possible. Overall, models point towards shear values of less than 30kt, and CAPE less than 500 J/Kg for Sunday, so the threat for severe should remain minimal and mainly outflow/boundary driven. The main risk with storms on Sunday will be heavy rain, as PWATs continue to climb across the region as we tap into subtropical, moisture rich air coming in from our south. Both GFS and EC ensemble members show PWAT anomalies of around 200% of normal over the high country by Sunday, and WPC already has us outlooked for a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Sunday as well. Monday Through Friday. The forecast continues to trend towards a risk for excessive rainfall through this entire period, as the beginnings of an omega block try to take shape over the CONUS. The pattern is maybe too short lived over us to be a true "block," as models show signs of breaking it down or at least moving it by mid-week. That said, for at least Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday, the low remains stuck to our west or directly overhead, pumping in moist subtropical air and shortwave energy that is likely to bring daily chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms. The most likely day for excessive rainfall looks to be Tuesday at this stage, as models stream moist Gulf air all the way back into Colorado. The "block" moves eastwards through mid-week, and then parks itself for a couple of days again through the second half of the week. If this pattern verifies, it will keep us on the backside of the same low for the Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday timeframe. This will likely mean a few more days of near normal temperatures and daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, though the potential for excessive rainfall will probably not be as prolific under northerly flow aloft. Depending on the events of the beginning of this week though, antecedent conditions could still be sufficient enough to warrant continued flash flooding concerns through the end of the week as the low remains parked over the middle of the country. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 500 AM MDT Fri May 2 2025 VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites, KCOS, KPUB, and KALS, for the next 24 hours. Cloud cover will continue to gradually dissipate through the morning hours, with clear skies expected through the remainder of the forecast period. Winds will be light and diurnally driven. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...EHR AVIATION...EHR