FXUS65 KREV 072025
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
125 PM PDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated showers and thunderstorms return this afternoon, with 
  increasing coverage Sunday and Monday. 

* Very warm temperatures persist into the middle of next week 
  with moderate HeatRisk in northeast CA and western NV valleys. 

* Slightly cooler temperatures and increased winds likely return
  mid-late next week, resulting in impacts to fire, travel, and
  recreation interests.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Summer-like heat with daily showers and thunderstorm chances will 
continue to be the main weather highlights into early next week 
amid a pattern showing slowly evolving weather features. 
Thunderstorm chances today appear to be a little less compared to 
yesterday with the main upper low a bit farther offshore from the 
CA coast and a drier ENE flow across western NV-northeast CA. A 
mid-level dry slot and capping inversion was observed on Reno's 
12Z sounding and remains on model soundings through this 
afternoon, which would also limit vertical convective growth. The 
best potential (15-30%) for isolated pulse-type storms favors the 
Sierra in Alpine and Mono counties. Elsewhere, lesser chances of 
10-15% linger around the Tahoe basin and into northeast CA, mainly
if outflow interactions trigger new shower/storm formation. 
However, the majority of the cells are more likely to be kicked 
west of the Sierra crest this afternoon, especially in areas north
of US-50. 

For Sunday and Monday, this offshore low begins to approach the CA 
coast again, with mid level flow becoming more ESE, allowing for a
bit more moisture and instability compared to today, without the 
mid-level capping inversion. This low then drifts inland across 
southern CA by Monday, with a baggy trough across central-southern
CA/NV and another weak shortwave moving into northeast CA. This 
pattern would allow for increased development of showers and 
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon across more areas of eastern CA- 
western NV. Some of the higher resolution guidance keeps some cell
redevelopment going through much of the evening both Sunday and 
Monday. This is likely a result of multiple outflow interactions 
after cells begin forming, with plenty of available heat. DCAPE 
values are projected in the 1000-1500 J/kg range, which could lead 
to more cells producing stronger outflow gusts of 45+ mph and 
potential for blowing dust if these outflows travel across the 
deserts and sinks of west central NV.

For the remainder of next week, thunderstorm chances may linger
through Tuesday afternoon, especially for for northeast CA and 
northwest NV. Then the pattern trends drier for the remainder of 
the week, although a few ensemble members don't fully remove the 
shower threat mainly near the OR border. With this drier pattern 
will be increasing west wind gusts each afternoon, which could 
produce lake recreation and elevated to locally critical fire 
weather concerns.

Very warm daytime temperatures 10-15 degrees above average are
also contributing to this active weather pattern producing daily
rounds of convection. Highs each day through Tuesday will climb 
into the mid-upper 90s across most lower elevations with 
widespread Moderate HeatRisk. A few warmer valleys in west central  
NV have a small 25% chance of touching 100 degrees Monday-Tuesday. 
Sierra communities can expect highs in the lower-mid 80s during 
this same time frame. Temperatures start to decrease slightly 
Wednesday, then dip to the mid 80s-near 90 in lower elevations and
70s for Sierra communities by late next week. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms continue to be the main weather concern for the next
few days with KMMH having the best chances (20-30%) today during 
the 21-03Z timeframe. This potential drops to about 10-15% for 
KTRK/KTVL and less than 10% for the western NV terminals. For 
Sunday and Monday, a 20-30% chance of storms will expand across 
all main terminals during the afternoon-early evening. Expect 
outflow wind gusts (30+ kt today and 40+ kt Sunday-Monday) and 
sudden wind shifts, brief heavy downpours with reduced CIGS/VIS 
and terrain obscurations, small hail, and lightning with any 
thunderstorms. MJD

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$