FXUS65 KSLC 192134
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
334 PM MDT Mon May 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...As a system continues to depart Monday, conditions trend 
drier and milder through the week, though a couple of weaker 
systems will graze northern areas of the forecast region. 

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Wednesday)...Afternoon water vapor loop 
shows the axis of a broad Pacific trough continuing to shift east
of the area. Meager moisture within the trailing northwest flow 
has resulted in some widely isolated light shower activity, but 
area radars show coverage has trended down significantly, and 
forecast models suggest this trend should further continue moving 
into the evening. Aside from precipitation, this storm brought 
widespread cool conditions to the area, with afternoon temps 
currently running about 5F to 15F below climatological normal.

Moving into the overnight hours, the cold conditions will 
persist. With further clearing skies and relaxing winds, 
conditions will be favorable for effective radiational cooling, 
and thus will see temps once again get quite chilly. Given the 
late seasonality to this cold snap, went ahead and upgraded the 
Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning for Juab/Millard Counties, the 
Sanpete Valley, the Sevier Valley, the Western Uinta Basin, and 
portions of Southwest Utah. The effects/impacts of this cold will 
be most noticeable to any crops/gardens or other sensitive 
vegetation.

Conditions on Tuesday will warm fairly markedly, with afternoon 
high marks rebounding to levels near climatological normal. Deeper
flow overhead will remain more northwesterly however, and a 
subtle impulse embedded within faster flow will graze by the 
northern periphery of the forecast region. As such, will see 
isolated to scattered shower coverage increase from late morning 
on through the afternoon hours, primarily along/north of the I-80 
corridor, and particularly for areas closer to the UT/ID border. 
With destabilization leading to mean CAPE values around 100-250 
J/kg, a few thunderstorms will also be possible. Given decent 
boundary layer mixing in some of the forecast CAM soundings with 
the warmer conditions, expect somewhat dry subcloud layers, and as
a result wouldn't entirely rule out a few marginally strong wind 
gusts in the 35-50 mph range or so. Overall though, looks like a 
pretty unremarkable system. Activity clears up Tuesday evening on 
into the overnight hours, with forecast lows continuing to trend 
upwards.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Wednesday), Issued 404 AM MDT...
No notable or impactful weather expected through the extended 
forecast. Temperatures will continue a warming trend Wendesday 
into Thursday where they will settle on slightly above average 
values through the weekend and into Monday. Ensemble confidence is
increasing that the magnitude of the warm up being driven by a 
Desert Southwest high ridge will be moderated by an active 
northern stream jet moving through the Pacific Northwest into 
Montana. This will keep the ridge suppressed and allow for weak, 
mainly dry cool fronts at times to sneak into northern Utah, which
will help pump the breaks on a more robust warm up. With these 
brush by systems to our north, cannot rule out an isolated shower 
late Thursday, and again Saturday and Sunday afternoons, 
especially over the northern Utah mountains. Other than that, 
confidence is high in a stretch of dry weather conditions 
persisting at least into early next week. 

&&

.AVIATION....KSLC...West to northwest winds, with gusts around 20 
knots, will diminish after 00Z. Light west to northwest winds will 
prevail through 03Z when winds transition to southeast. Clouds will 
diminish through the evening, but scattered to broken clouds in VFR 
range will track in by around 09Z.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...West to northwest wind gusts 
around 20 knots will taper off after 00Z, with relatively light 
winds after. Clouds will diminish into the evening, but increase for 
southwest Wyoming and northern Utah after roughly 09Z. Scattered to 
broken clouds in VFR range will prevail with isolated to scattered 
rain showers, primarily north of KSLC, from around 12-00Z.

&& 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Behind the broad weekend system, conditions will
trend drier through the week, as well as milder. That said, will 
have some weak grazing impulses pass by to the north, bringing 
lower end precipitation chances to northern Utah Tuesday and 
Thursday. 

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM MDT Tuesday for 
     UTZ114>116-118-119-122.

WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Warthen
LONG TERM...Church
AVIATION...Wilson
FIRE WEATHER...Warthen

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